outcome-hypothesis

Outcome Hypothesis

Goal

Produce an evidence-grounded prediction of what business result will change, for whom, within a specific timeframe, and how leading and lagging indicators will prove or disprove it.

Treat "outcome hypothesis", "business outcome hypothesis", "value hypothesis", and "outcome statement" as equivalent requests.

When to Use

Use this skill to:

• Frame or sharpen an outcome for a project, initiative, or engagement.
• Convert a technical idea or deliverable-led proposal into a measurable beneficiary result.
• Assess whether an existing hypothesis is falsifiable, quantified, baselined, and traceable.
• Prepare an evidence-based starting point for an outcome conversation.

Do not use it to create a full project plan, write a decision record, produce a status update, or run evidence-free ideation.

Use requirements-author when the outcome is understood and the task is to create or govern a BRD or PRD. Use performance-slo-planner for production SLOs, capacity, latency budgets, and load-test planning.

When an AI or ML intervention materially affects people's access, eligibility, treatment, allocation, or opportunities, continue outcome framing here and initiate the RAI Planner as a separate assessment. AI or ML involvement alone does not trigger this route.

Modes

Resolve the mode before scoring:

• create: Author a new or revised hypothesis from the available evidence.
• assess: Evaluate a supplied hypothesis without changing its facts, structure, or prose.

If the request is ambiguous, ask whether the user wants to create a hypothesis or assess an existing one. Assess mode requires the existing hypothesis or outcome document. A revised draft is a separate create or revision request after assessment.

Flow

Use the Outcome-Hypothesis CAUTION in the Outcome-Hypothesis section of the disclaimer-language skill (../../shared/disclaimer-language/SKILL.md) as the only disclaimer source. That skill and section are required before create or assess delivery. Load the CAUTION verbatim when rendering a create-mode document or delivering either mode's result; never store a second literal in this skill or its template. If the required skill or section is missing, unreadable, or unavailable, state that the canonical CAUTION is unavailable. Do not fabricate, invent, or paraphrase a substitute. Stop before delivering a draft or assessment, persistence, or handoff, and name rerunning after the required skill and section are accessible as the condition to resume.