a-share-hypothesis-intake

a-share-hypothesis-intake is a skill for Codex from minguncle/a-share-agent-skills. It costs 75 tokens per session (1,240 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A framework for breaking long articles, transcripts, macroeconomic views, and news into facts, assumptions, missing data, and conditions that could prove them wrong. It then maps those ideas to possible effects on Chinese stocks and sectors.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to analyze long source material, turn macro views into stock-market hypotheses, identify affected sectors, and create follow-up checks.
Why use it?
It prevents opinions from being mistaken for facts and makes broad claims easier to test against current data and market behavior.

Skill for Codex

Written for Codex: agents/openai.yaml present.

Good fit Use it to analyze long source material, turn macro views into stock-market hypotheses, identify affected sectors, and create follow-up checks.

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Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/minguncle/a-share-agent-skills/a-share-hypothesis-intake
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add minguncle/a-share-agent-skills --skill a-share-hypothesis-intake
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/minguncle/a-share-agent-skills

Made for: Codex.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for a-share-hypothesis-intake

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/minguncle/a-share-agent-skills/a-share-hypothesis-intake/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/minguncle/a-share-agent-skills/a-share-hypothesis-intake)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/minguncle/a-share-agent-skills/a-share-hypothesis-intake"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/minguncle/a-share-agent-skills/a-share-hypothesis-intake/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for a-share-hypothesis-intake

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/minguncle/a-share-agent-skills/a-share-hypothesis-intake"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/minguncle/a-share-agent-skills/a-share-hypothesis-intake.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 75 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 1,240 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00075 $0.01240
Opus 5 $0.00037 $0.00620
Sonnet 5 $0.00015 $0.00248
Haiku 4.5 $0.00007 $0.00124

Measured 12d ago against content hash 6c6526a0f006, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-12, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

a-share-hypothesis-intake scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 12d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

skills/core/a-share-hypothesis-intake/SKILL.md · 130 lines

What it actually says

A Share Hypothesis Intake

Overview

这个 skill 用来处理“大段观点输入”。目标不是复述,而是拆成可验证的假设,并把每条假设落到 A 股传导链、板块、风格和后续观察项上。

Hard Rules

  1. 任何长材料都必须拆成“事实”“推断”“结论倾向”“数据缺口”。
  2. 时间敏感内容不能直接采信,能验证则验证,不能验证就标记未验证。
  3. 不能把讲话者的观点等同于事实。
  4. 每条宏观观点都必须回到 A 股:影响哪个板块、通过什么链条、在哪个条件下成立。
  5. 不直接给最终买卖指令,除非后续再接市场扫描和动作路由。

When To Use

  • 用户贴视频字幕、音频转写、长文评论
  • 用户给宏观框架,希望拆成交易语言
  • 用户拿一套世界观来问“怎么提炼”
  • 需要把事件逻辑变成观察清单和验证框架

Workflow

Step 1: 切分原始材料

把材料切成独立主张,不要整段处理。每个主张尽量只表达一个核心判断,例如:

  • 战争会在某个时间窗口缓和
  • 某种商品会跑赢股指
  • 某类资产的下跌是流动性而非基本面驱动

Step 2: 四分法标注

每条主张都标成以下之一:

  • 事实
  • 推断
  • 未验证判断
  • 价值倾向/立场

Step 3: 提炼传导链

强制把观点改写成 A 股可用格式:

  • 触发事件
  • 中间变量
  • 受益板块
  • 受损板块
  • 领先观察量
  • 失效条件

模板见 hypothesis-card-template.md

Step 4: 验证关键不稳定项

优先验证最容易改变结论的变量,例如:

  • 日期和政策时点
  • 战争或关税的最新进展
  • 原油、黄金、汇率、利率的当下水平
  • A 股相关板块今天是否已经交易了这条逻辑

Step 5: 输出可执行观察项

最终不是给空泛总结,而是形成:

  • 哪几条主张值得继续跟
  • 哪几条主张已经被盘面证伪
  • 明天或下一个时间窗该看什么

Tool Rules

  • 原始材料拆解可先本地处理,再对时间敏感点做网页或数据验证
  • 地缘、政策、价格、收益率等不稳定项必须优先用最新来源确认
  • 如果无法确认,只能写“未验证”,不能补细节

Output Contract

默认输出:

  • 核心主张拆分
  • 事实与推断分离
  • A股传导卡
  • 成立条件
  • 失效条件
  • 下一步验证项

Practical Notes

  • 用户材料很长时,优先抽主线,不要逐句复述
  • 若同一材料内部自相矛盾,要直接指出,不做圆场
  • 若后续要把观点接到盘面,优先调用市场扫描;若要落到组合,优先调用动作路由

Inputs & Preconditions

  • 输入可以是长文、字幕、新闻摘录、语音转写或用户自己的宏观框架
  • 若材料明显涉及时间敏感判断,应允许后续补实时验证
  • 用户若只要“拆观点”,可不依赖实时数据;若要落到交易,应衔接市场扫描

Dependency Profile

  • 必需依赖:一个支持 skill 的 agent 运行环境
  • 建议依赖:可访问的公开新闻、价格、政策或跨资产页面,用于验证不稳定主张
  • 可选依赖:大宗商品、汇率、利率等数据接口
  • 降级策略:在无法验证时,保留拆解与传导卡,但把结论降级为 未验证判断

Data Gap Handling

  • 说话者观点与事实无法区分时,优先降级而不是强行定性
  • 时间敏感主张验证失败时,单列 数据缺口未验证
  • 不把未验证材料直接升级成交易结论
  • 不伪造政策日期、资产价格或战争进展细节

Risk Language

  • 不把观点拆解结果写成收益承诺
  • 任何传导链都必须允许被证伪,不做单线必然叙事
  • 若盘面没有交易该逻辑,要直接说明“材料成立,不等于当下可交易”

Short Disclaimer

本 skill 仅用于投资研究流程、信息整理与教育演示,不构成投资建议、个性化荐股、投顾服务或自动交易指令。

This skill is for research workflow, information organization, and educational use only. It is not investment advice, not personalized recommendation, and not for automated trading.

Files

What ships with it

2 files beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 12d ago First seen · 130 lines · 75 tokens per session scan A 6c6526a0f006

Subscribe to this mod's changes

a-share-hypothesis-intake is a skill published in the GitHub repository minguncle/a-share-agent-skills (2 stars, last pushed 4mo ago), licensed MIT. It adds 75 tokens to every session and 1,240 once invoked, about $0.0004 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-31.

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