outcome-tracker

outcome-tracker is a skill for Claude Code from mohitagw15856/pm-claude-skills. It costs 100 tokens per session (1,412 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A way to record predictions made in decisions, forecasts, or launch plans and check them against what later happened. It scores predictions as hits, misses, partial results, or outcomes that cannot be judged.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to track targets and confidence, review due predictions, and measure the accuracy of prioritisation or forecasting methods over time.
Why use it?
Teams often make predictions but never revisit them, so they cannot tell which planning methods are reliable.

Skill for Claude Code

Written for Claude Code: shipped in a Claude Code plugin.

Part of the pm-autopilot plugin — 7 skills shipped together

Good fit Use it to track targets and confidence, review due predictions, and measure the accuracy of prioritisation or forecasting methods over time.

Compare 6 skills from other repositories ↓
Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/mohitagw15856/pm-claude-skills/outcome-tracker
About the project

PM Skills is a collection of plain-Markdown instructions that teach AI assistants structured methods for handling professional, personal, and life-admin tasks. People use it with Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, Cursor, Codex, and other supported agents for work such as writing product requirements, reviewing documents, or planning difficult situations.

mohitagw15856/pm-claude-skills · 1,449 stars · on GitHub · mohitagw15856.github.io

Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add mohitagw15856/pm-claude-skills --skill outcome-tracker
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/mohitagw15856/pm-claude-skills

Made for: Claude Code.

Or install pm-autopilot, the plugin that ships this one along with the rest of its 7 skills.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for outcome-tracker

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/mohitagw15856/pm-claude-skills/outcome-tracker/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/mohitagw15856/pm-claude-skills/outcome-tracker)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/mohitagw15856/pm-claude-skills/outcome-tracker"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/mohitagw15856/pm-claude-skills/outcome-tracker/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for outcome-tracker

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/mohitagw15856/pm-claude-skills/outcome-tracker"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/mohitagw15856/pm-claude-skills/outcome-tracker.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 100 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 1,412 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00100 $0.01412
Opus 5.5 $0.00040 $0.00565
Sonnet 5.5 $0.00020 $0.00282
Haiku 4.5 $0.00010 $0.00141

Measured 2d ago against content hash fa407a932290, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-10-07, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

outcome-tracker scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 2d ago.

The scan reads SKILL.md. This mod also ships 1 executable file (scripts/outcome_calibration.py), listed below but not scanned — reading those needs a real analyzer, not pattern matching.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

plugins/pm-autopilot/skills/outcome-tracker/SKILL.md · 96 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 96 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Outcome Tracker Skill

Every prioritisation, forecast, and launch plan makes predictions — then everyone forgets to check them. This skill closes the loop: extract the predictions at decision time, park them somewhere durable, and score them against reality on a schedule. Over time it answers the question no one can answer today: which of our frameworks actually predict outcomes?

What This Skill Produces

  • At decision time: a prediction record — each claim made falsifiable, with a metric, a direction/target, a check-by date, and a stated confidence
  • At review time: an outcome scoring of due predictions (hit / miss / partial / unresolvable), with what was learned
  • On demand: a calibration report — per-framework and per-confidence-band hit rates from the accumulated records

Required Inputs

Ask for (if not already provided):

  • Mode — record (new decision), review (score due predictions), or calibrate (analyse the history)
  • Record mode: the decision artifact (RICE table, forecast, launch plan, OKR set) and where records live (a predictions/ folder in the Brain, or a JSON/markdown file in the repo)
  • Review mode: the stored predictions plus current metric values for the due ones
  • Calibrate mode: the prediction history (the calculator below reads it as JSON)

Making Claims Falsifiable (record mode)

Walk the artifact and force each implicit claim into this shape — a prediction that can't fill the row doesn't get recorded, it gets flagged as untestable:

Field Rule
claim One sentence, future tense, about a measurable effect ("onboarding redesign lifts activation")
metric The exact instrumented metric, with today's baseline
predicted Direction + magnitude band ("+10-20% relative") — bands beat point estimates
confidence 0.5–0.95, from the author, recorded before the outcome is knowable
check_by The date the effect should be visible if real; also the review trigger
framework What produced the claim (rice-prioritisation, gut call, sales-forecasting-model…) — this is what calibration is about

Read the full file on GitHub · 96 lines

Files

What ships with it

1 file beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 2d ago First seen · 96 lines · 100 tokens per session scan A fa407a932290

Subscribe to this mod's changes

outcome-tracker is a skill published in the GitHub repository mohitagw15856/pm-claude-skills (1,449 stars, last pushed today), licensed MIT. It adds 100 tokens to every session and 1,412 once invoked, about $0.0004 per session on Opus 5.5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-10-12.

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