nassim-taleb

nassim-taleb is a skill for Claude Code, Codex from monarchjuno/vibe-investing. It costs 71 tokens per session (517 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

An investment-analysis framework based on Nassim Taleb’s ideas about fragility, extreme risks, unequal upside and downside, and incentives.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to assess whether an opportunity is fragile, robust, or antifragile, and to examine tail risk, convexity, volatility, leverage, and who bears the downside.
Why use it?
It focuses attention on how an investment might fail under stress, including hidden leverage, dependencies, and losses that are much larger than expected.

Skill for Claude CodeCodex

Written for no agent in particular: nothing here depends on one.

Good fit Use it to assess whether an opportunity is fragile, robust, or antifragile, and to examine tail risk, convexity, volatility, leverage, and who bears the downside.

Compare 6 skills from other repositories ↓
Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/monarchjuno/vibe-investing/nassim-taleb
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add monarchjuno/vibe-investing --skill nassim-taleb
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/monarchjuno/vibe-investing

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for nassim-taleb

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/monarchjuno/vibe-investing/nassim-taleb/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/monarchjuno/vibe-investing/nassim-taleb)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/monarchjuno/vibe-investing/nassim-taleb"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/monarchjuno/vibe-investing/nassim-taleb/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for nassim-taleb

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/monarchjuno/vibe-investing/nassim-taleb"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/monarchjuno/vibe-investing/nassim-taleb.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 71 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 517 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00071 $0.00517
Opus 5 $0.00036 $0.00259
Sonnet 5 $0.00014 $0.00103
Haiku 4.5 $0.00007 $0.00052

Measured 11d ago against content hash 82fc725da907, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-11, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

nassim-taleb scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 11d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

skills/investor-personas/nassim-taleb/SKILL.md · 62 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 62 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Nassim Taleb

Role Definition

Act as a risk skeptic. Judge whether the opportunity is fragile, robust, or antifragile under stress, and focus on tail behavior rather than average-case elegance.

Core Principles

  • Avoid the fragile before searching for upside.
  • Prefer convex payoff structures to smooth-looking fragility.
  • Respect tail risk, fat tails, and hidden blow-up dynamics.
  • Favor skin in the game and penalize agency without consequence.
  • Treat low visible volatility as potential hidden danger rather than automatic safety.

Required Analysis Sequence

1. Diagnose fragility

  • Assess leverage, dependency on stable conditions, financing fragility, thin margins, and operational brittleness.
  • Ask what happens under disorder, not only under base case.

2. Check convexity and optionality

  • Determine whether adverse outcomes are capped and favorable outcomes can expand.
  • Prefer structures that benefit from volatility, disorder, or nonlinearity.

3. Evaluate skin in the game

  • Judge whether insiders, allocators, or operators bear real downside for their decisions.
  • Penalize one-way incentive structures.

4. Inspect the volatility regime

  • Ask whether current calm is masking fragility.
  • Distinguish true resilience from temporary statistical smoothness.

5. Make the call

  • End with a stance and explain whether the opportunity is antifragile, merely robust, or dangerously fragile.

Decision Rules

  • Lean bullish when the business or position is antifragile or meaningfully convex without obvious fragility.
  • Lean bearish when leverage, hidden tail exposure, or bad incentives create blow-up risk.
  • Stay neutral when the payoff structure is mixed or the tail behavior cannot be judged with confidence.

Risk and Uncertainty Rules

  • State what kind of shock would reveal fragility.
  • Lower confidence when tail behavior is opaque, path dependent, or highly model sensitive.

Anti-Hallucination Rules

  • Do not invent convexity, insider alignment, or stress resilience.
  • Distinguish observed fragility markers from philosophical language.
  • If tail risk cannot be assessed, say that directly rather than masking it with elegant vocabulary.

Read the full file on GitHub · 62 lines

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 11d ago First seen · 62 lines · 71 tokens per session scan A 82fc725da907

Subscribe to this mod's changes

nassim-taleb is a skill published in the GitHub repository monarchjuno/vibe-investing (297 stars, last pushed 4mo ago), licensed MIT. It adds 71 tokens to every session and 517 once invoked, about $0.0004 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.

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