win-loss-synthesis

Win-loss synthesis

Use buyer and deal evidence to explain patterns in wins, losses, and no-decisions, with conclusions limited to the sample studied.

Fails. "Price is why we lose. 67% of interviews mentioned it."

Passes. "Price was the primary coded reason in 8 of 12 interviewed losses (12 of 41 eligible losses participated). Direct buyer evidence in 5. Counterexamples: two losses where price was accepted and security stalled the deal. This is the interviewed sample, not the closed-lost population."

For a single competitive asset, use battlecard-builder. For recurring objections across live calls, use call-insights-to-objections.

Inputs

Ask only for the inputs that change the findings:

1. Time window, segment, and the eligible closed-deal population
2. Sources on hand: interviews, CRM notes, call snippets, closed-lost reasons
3. Selection method and the win / loss / no-decision mix
4. Confidentiality, consent, and who will see quotes

If sample accounting is incomplete, proceed with labeled limits. Do not imply the sample represents the eligible population. Do not invent win rates.

Supporting material

Read references/win-loss-coding-framework.md before you code themes, assign a primary reason, or quantify a finding. Skip it only if the user already coded the set and wants implications from a finished ledger.

Procedure

1. Draw the boundary. Eligible population, inclusion rules, outcome definitions, and what counts as evidence. Done when a reviewer can see who is in and who is out.
2. Build the sample ledger. Eligible, selected, contacted, participated, evidence-available, coded, excluded. By outcome and any material segment. No ledger, no prevalence language.
3. Keep evidence and interpretation apart. Observed fact, stakeholder-reported reason, contributing factor, and analyst root-cause hypothesis are four fields. A CRM close reason is one input, not the finding.
4. Calibrate, then code. One primary reason only when the evidence supports a dominant reason; otherwise mixed or unresolved. Preserve secondary reasons and disagreements between buyer, seller, and system. Version the codebook.
5. Assign confidence from the slice, not the story. Independent deals, direct buyer evidence, coverage, source mix, counterexamples. High never transfers automatically to another segment or competitor.
6. Protect people and accounts. Approved attribution only. Suppress thin cells. No rep-performance verdicts unless that use was approved.
7. Recommend only what the sample can carry. Recommend messaging, coaching, process, or product changes with a responsible owner. Include counterexamples and a way to test the proposed explanation. A mention of price may describe a symptom; compare buyer criteria, perceived value, and alternatives before prescribing discounting.