manifold

manifold is a skill for Claude Code from Outsharp/shipp-skills. It costs 60 tokens per session (8,713 once invoked), scanned A, original, Apache-2.0.

A connection to Manifold, a website where people trade on the likely outcomes of real-world events using play money or prize cash. It lets a coding agent work with Manifold through its API.

In plain words
What is it for?
Finding markets, placing trades, creating markets, managing a portfolio, receiving live market updates, and posting comments.
Why use it?
It removes the need to use Manifold’s website for every market or account action. It also provides programmatic access to markets and live updates, although the API may change because it is still in alpha.

Skill for Claude Code

Written for Claude Code: allowed-tools in frontmatter.

Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/outsharp/shipp-skills/manifold
Any agent
npx skills add Outsharp/shipp-skills --skill manifold
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/Outsharp/shipp-skills

Made for: Claude Code.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for manifold

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/outsharp/shipp-skills/manifold.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/outsharp/shipp-skills/manifold)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/outsharp/shipp-skills/manifold"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/outsharp/shipp-skills/manifold.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>
Per session 60 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 8,713 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 1 finding. Scan, not verified.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00060 $0.08713
Opus 5 $0.00030 $0.04356
Sonnet 5 $0.00012 $0.01743
Haiku 4.5 $0.00006 $0.00871

Measured 5d ago against content hash c54253cf1abc, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-05, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

manifold scanned grade A with 1 finding against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 5d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Makes network callslowCapability

Not a fault in itself. Listed so you know the mod talks to something, and to what.

- Any HTTP client (curl, Python requests, fetch, etc.)
skills/manifold/SKILL.md · 895 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 895 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Manifold API

Manifold is a prediction market platform where users create and trade on questions about real-world events. It uses a combination of play-money (mana) and prize-cash, with automated market makers (CPMM) and a rich API for programmatic access.

Check this skill and the official documentation FREQUENTLY for updates. The API is still in alpha and may change without notice.

Community: Join the Manifold Discord for questions, bug reports, and to share what you build.

Source code: Manifold is open source. Type definitions live at common/src/api/schema.ts.


Key Concepts (Glossary)

Term Definition
Market (Contract) A single tradeable question. Called "contract" in the codebase, "market" in the API. Has an outcome type (BINARY, MULTIPLE_CHOICE, PSEUDO_NUMERIC, BOUNTIED_QUESTION, POLL).
Mana (M$) Play-money currency used for most markets. Cannot be withdrawn for real money.
Prize Cash (CASH) Real-money currency available on select markets. Can be withdrawn. Identified by token: "CASH" on a market.
Sibling Contract The mana or prize-cash counterpart of a market. Toggle between them via siblingContractId.
Topic (Group) A tag applied to markets for categorization. Called "group" in the codebase and API.
CPMM Constant Product Market Maker. The automated market maker used for binary (cpmm-1) and multi-answer (cpmm-multi-1) markets.
DPM Dynamic Parimutuel Market — a legacy mechanism (dpm-2) used for older free-response markets.
Probability A number between 0 and 1 representing the market's current implied probability of YES.
Pool The liquidity pool of shares backing the market maker. For CPMM markets, shows YES and NO share counts.
Liquidity Mana deposited into the AMM pool. More liquidity means less price impact per trade.
Bet A trade on a market. Can be a market order or a limit order (when limitProb is specified).
Limit Order A bet that only executes at a specified probability price or better. Remains open until filled, cancelled, or expired.
Shares Units of a position. Winning YES shares pay out M$1 each; losing shares pay M$0.
Resolution The final outcome of a market: YES, NO, MKT (probability), or CANCEL.
Answer A possible outcome in a MULTIPLE_CHOICE or FREE_RESPONSE market. Each answer has its own probability.
Bounty A BOUNTIED_QUESTION market where the creator distributes mana rewards to the best comments/answers.
Poll A non-trading market type where users simply vote on options.

Read the full file on GitHub · 895 lines

Files

What ships with it

1 file beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 5d ago First seen · 895 lines · 60 tokens per session scan A c54253cf1abc

Subscribe to this mod's changes

manifold is a skill published in the GitHub repository Outsharp/shipp-skills (4 stars, last pushed 5mo ago), licensed Apache-2.0. It adds 60 tokens to every session and 8,713 once invoked, about $0.0003 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 1 finding (makes network calls). No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-31.