Getting it into your agent
One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.
npx skills add peterfei/forge-skill --skill scenario-planning-skillgit clone --depth 1 https://github.com/peterfei/forge-skillWrote this? Show the measurements
A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.
[](https://agentmods.dev/skills/peterfei/forge-skill/scenario-planning-skill)<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/peterfei/forge-skill/scenario-planning-skill"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/peterfei/forge-skill/scenario-planning-skill.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>What it costs to keep this loaded
Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.
| Model | Per session | Once invoked |
|---|---|---|
| Fable 5.1 | $0.00077 | $0.05811 |
| Opus 5 | $0.00039 | $0.02906 |
| Sonnet 5 | $0.00015 | $0.01162 |
| Haiku 4.5 | $0.00008 | $0.00581 |
Grade A, and why
scenario-planning-skill scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 7d ago.
A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.
Nothing flagged
None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.
How it starts
The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 270 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.
场景规划（Scenario Planning）思维工具
不是预测"最可能"的未来，而是构建多个可能的未来，让决策者体验不同世界，从而改变心智模型。
激活条件与触发词
直接使用触发词
- 「用场景规划分析...」
- 「帮我构建几个未来场景」
- 「应对高度不确定性」
- 「战略前瞻」「scenario planning」
诊断推荐触发词
- 「未来高度不确定，不知道怎么办」
- 「不能只做一个预测」
- 「需要考虑多种可能未来」
- 「想提前应对不同情况」
方法框架概览
场景规划是一种战略前瞻方法，通过构建3-4个结构不同的未来叙事场景，帮助决策者在深度不确定性下识别关键驱动力量、挑战既有心智模型、制定鲁棒战略。其核心价值不在于"猜中"未来，而在于改变决策者对世界的认知框架。
核心原理
原理1：心智模型重构（Mental Model Reframing）
一句话定义： 场景的目的不是预测未来，而是改变决策者的心智模型。
跨域证据1： [企业战略] Pierre Wack在Royal Dutch Shell的实践表明，场景规划的核心目标从来不是"猜中"未来，而是让Shell的管理层"看到"他们之前看不到的结构性变化。Wack在1985年HBR文章《Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead》中明确写道：场景的价值在于改变管理者的"micros"——他们对世界的内在假设和认知框架。通过1971-1973年间的场景工作，Shell管理层认识到中东石油供应可能中断这一结构性变化，使Shell在1973年石油危机中从"七姐妹"中最弱的公司一跃成为行业领导者。（来源：HBR, 1985）
跨域证据2： [公共政策] 新加坡政府自1980年代起在国防部率先引入场景规划，后扩展至整个政府体系。新加坡战略未来中心（Centre for Strategic Futures, CSF）将场景规划用于改变政策制定者对国家安全的认知框架，其SP+（Scenario Planning Plus）方法论明确将"挑战假设"作为核心目标。（来源：OECD OPSI）
应用方式： 构建3-4个结构不同的场景叙事，迫使决策者体验与其既有认知不同的"未来世界"，从而松动固化的思维框架。
局限： 效果高度依赖参与者的开放性和反思能力；组织文化中权力距离过大时，下属可能不敢真正挑战上级假设，场景沦为表面功夫。
原理2：预确定性要素识别（Predetermined Elements）
一句话定义： 区分已经发生但后果尚未完全展开的"确定性力量"与真正不确定的因素。
跨域证据1： [能源行业] Pierre Wack将"预确定性要素"定义为"已经发生但其后果尚未完全展开的事件"。在Shell的场景实践中，Wack识别出20世纪70年代中东国家的民族主义浪潮和石油需求增长趋势属于"预确定性要素"——这些力量已经形成，不论短期政治事件如何变化都会持续发挥作用。（来源：ResearchGate）
跨域证据2： [气候政策] IPCC的共享社会经济路径（SSPs）框架将人口增长趋势、既有基础设施的碳排放锁定效应等视为"预确定性要素"，而将政策选择路径、技术突破速度等作为真正的不确定性维度。（来源：IPCC Emissions Scenarios）
应用方式： 在构建场景之前，先系统梳理"确定性"力量（人口趋势、已投入资本、物理定律约束等），将其作为所有场景共享的"底座"，再围绕2-3个关键不确定性构建差异化的场景。
局限： "预确定性"的判断本身可能出错——某些看似确定的大趋势可能在黑天鹅事件中发生反转（如苏联解体对地缘政治"确定性"的颠覆）。
原理3：不确定性双轴矩阵（Uncertainty Axes Matrix）
What this file has done since we first saw it
Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.
- 7d ago First seen · 270 lines · 77 tokens per session scan A 4be1178187e0
scenario-planning-skill is a skill published in the GitHub repository peterfei/forge-skill (13 stars, last pushed 2mo ago), licensed MIT. It adds 77 tokens to every session and 5,811 once invoked, about $0.0004 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.
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