prioritize-assumptions

prioritize-assumptions is a skill for Claude Code from phuryn/pm-skills. It costs 44 tokens per session (507 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A method for ranking assumptions by their possible impact and the risk of being wrong. It also suggests experiments, which are small tests used to learn whether an assumption is true.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to sort a list of customer, product, or business assumptions and choose targeted tests. It supports prioritization with an Impact × Risk matrix and related scoring methods.
Why use it?
It helps teams decide what to test first instead of spending equal time on every unknown. This can expose high-consequence risks before they become expensive product decisions.

Skill for Claude Code

Written for Claude Code: $ARGUMENTS substitution.

Part of the pm-product-discovery plugin — 13 skills, 5 commands shipped together

Good fit Use it to sort a list of customer, product, or business assumptions and choose targeted tests. It supports prioritization with an Impact × Risk matrix and related scoring methods.

Compare 6 skills from other repositories ↓
Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/phuryn/pm-skills/prioritize-assumptions
About the project

phuryn/pm-skills is a marketplace of reusable skills, commands, and plugins that guide AI assistants through product-management work such as discovery, strategy, planning, metrics, launches, and growth. It is for product managers and teams using Claude Code, Cowork, or compatible assistants. The catalogue entries are the project's own workflows and extensions.

phuryn/pm-skills · 26,507 stars · on GitHub · productcompass.pm

Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add phuryn/pm-skills --skill prioritize-assumptions
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills

Made for: Claude Code.

Or install pm-product-discovery, the plugin that ships this one along with the rest of its 13 skills, 5 commands.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for prioritize-assumptions

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/phuryn/pm-skills/prioritize-assumptions/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/phuryn/pm-skills/prioritize-assumptions)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/phuryn/pm-skills/prioritize-assumptions"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/phuryn/pm-skills/prioritize-assumptions/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for prioritize-assumptions

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/phuryn/pm-skills/prioritize-assumptions"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/phuryn/pm-skills/prioritize-assumptions.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 44 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 507 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe. Third-party audits
  • Socket pass 18 Mar 2026
  • Snyk pass 4 Mar 2026
How audits are shown
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00044 $0.00507
Opus 5 $0.00022 $0.00253
Sonnet 5 $0.00009 $0.00101
Haiku 4.5 $0.00004 $0.00051

Measured 7d ago against content hash 18160a0138c7, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-22, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

prioritize-assumptions scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 7d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

Origin

Copies of this mod

1 near-identical copy found in the catalogue:

pm-product-discovery/skills/prioritize-assumptions/SKILL.md · 49 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 49 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Prioritize Assumptions

Triage assumptions using an Impact × Risk matrix and suggest targeted experiments.

Context

You are helping prioritize assumptions for $ARGUMENTS.

If the user provides files with assumptions or research data, read them first.

Domain Context

ICE works well for assumption prioritization: Impact (Opportunity Score × # Customers) × Confidence (1–10) × Ease (1–10). Opportunity Score = Importance × (1 − Satisfaction), normalized to 0–1 (Dan Olsen). RICE splits Impact into Reach × Impact separately: (R × I × C) / E. See the prioritization-frameworks skill for full formulas and templates.

Instructions

The user will provide a list of assumptions to prioritize. Apply the following framework:

  1. For each assumption, evaluate two dimensions:

    • Impact: The value created by validating this assumption AND the number of customers affected (in ICE: Impact = Opportunity Score × # Customers)
    • Risk: Defined as (1 - Confidence) × Effort
  2. Categorize each assumption using the Impact × Risk matrix:

    • Low Impact, Low Risk → Defer testing until higher-priority assumptions are addressed
    • High Impact, Low Risk → Proceed to implementation (low risk, high reward)
    • Low Impact, High Risk → Reject the idea (not worth the investment)
    • High Impact, High Risk → Design an experiment to test it
  3. For each assumption requiring testing, suggest an experiment that:

    • Maximizes validated learning with minimal effort
    • Measures actual behavior, not opinions
    • Has a clear success metric and threshold
  4. Present results as a prioritized matrix or table.

Think step by step. Save as markdown if the output is substantial.


Further Reading

Read the full file on GitHub · 49 lines

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 7d ago First seen · 49 lines · 44 tokens per session scan A 18160a0138c7

Subscribe to this mod's changes

prioritize-assumptions is a skill published in the GitHub repository phuryn/pm-skills (26,507 stars, last pushed 7d ago), licensed MIT. It adds 44 tokens to every session and 507 once invoked, about $0.0002 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-09-15.

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