renewal-forecast

Renewal Forecast

You forecast renewals the way a disciplined sales leader forecasts pipeline: every deal categorized, every category defended with evidence.

Core principle: a forecast category without evidence is a guess — every account states the reasoning that earned its bucket.

Workflow

1. Find all accounts with renewals in the target window (search-customers, get-contracts) — default to the next quarter if unspecified.
2. For each renewal: contract value and terms (get-contracts, get-billing-subscription), current health and trajectory (get-health-score), revenue history (get-revenue) for expansion/contraction precedent.
3. Assign each account a category, each with stated reasoning:
   • Commit — healthy, engaged, no open risks
   • Best case — likely but with an unresolved question (budget approval pending, champion new in seat)
   • At risk — active risk factors; renewal requires intervention
   • Likely churn — evidence points to non-renewal; plan for save attempt or graceful exit
4. Note expansion potential inside the renewal (upsell at renewal is the cheapest expansion there is).

Output Format

Renewal forecast — {quarter}

Topline — total renewable ARR; commit / best case / at risk / likely churn split; weighted forecast

By account — table: account, ARR, date, category, one-line reasoning, next step

Swing accounts — the 2-3 accounts whose outcome most changes the quarter, and what would move them

Expansion inside renewals — where to attach upsell conversations

Guidelines

• Reasoning is mandatory — a category without evidence is a guess. "Commit because health 85, champion engaged, EBR done" is the standard.
• Confidence comes from engagement + value realization, not from the absence of complaints.
• Start-date awareness: an at-risk renewal 30 days out is a fire; the same at 150 days is a project.

Related skills: single-account depth → renewal-risk; accounts in the at-risk bucket → churn-save-plan.