progressive-estimation

progressive-estimation is a skill for Claude Code from ratnesh-maurya/cursor-claude-personas. It costs 25 tokens per session (694 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

An estimation workflow for software work done by people, AI agents, or both. It uses three estimates for each task to produce an expected duration and confidence ranges.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to estimate individual tasks or large batches of issues, forecast releases, and plan capacity for human and agent teams.
Why use it?
It replaces a single guess with estimates that reflect uncertainty and different working arrangements. This helps teams plan backlogs, staffing, sprints, and release dates.

Skill for Claude Code

Written for Claude Code: installed under .claude/. Also seen: mentions Claude Code.

Good fit Use it to estimate individual tasks or large batches of issues, forecast releases, and plan capacity for human and agent teams.

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Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/ratnesh-maurya/cursor-claude-personas/progressive-estimation
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add ratnesh-maurya/cursor-claude-personas --skill progressive-estimation
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/ratnesh-maurya/cursor-claude-personas

Made for: Claude Code.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for progressive-estimation

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/ratnesh-maurya/cursor-claude-personas/progressive-estimation/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/ratnesh-maurya/cursor-claude-personas/progressive-estimation)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/ratnesh-maurya/cursor-claude-personas/progressive-estimation"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/ratnesh-maurya/cursor-claude-personas/progressive-estimation/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for progressive-estimation

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/ratnesh-maurya/cursor-claude-personas/progressive-estimation"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/ratnesh-maurya/cursor-claude-personas/progressive-estimation.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 25 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 694 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00025 $0.00694
Opus 5 $0.00013 $0.00347
Sonnet 5 $0.00005 $0.00139
Haiku 4.5 $0.00003 $0.00069

Measured 9d ago against content hash 351e126b5d8e, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-12, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

progressive-estimation scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 9d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

Origin

Copies of this mod

1 near-identical copy found in the catalogue:

.claude/skills/progressive-estimation/SKILL.md · 85 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 85 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Progressive Estimation

Estimate AI-assisted and hybrid human+agent development work using research-backed formulas with PERT statistics, confidence bands, and calibration feedback loops.

Overview

Progressive Estimation adapts to your team's working mode — human-only, hybrid, or agent-first — applying the right velocity model and multipliers for each. It produces statistical estimates rather than gut feelings.

When to Use This Skill

  • Estimating development tasks where AI agents handle part of the work
  • Sprint planning with hybrid human+agent teams
  • Batch sizing a backlog (handles 5 or 500 issues)
  • Staffing and capacity planning with agent multipliers
  • Release date forecasting with confidence intervals

How It Works

  1. Mode Detection — Determines if the team works human-only, hybrid, or agent-first
  2. Task Classification — Categorizes by size (XS–XL), complexity, and risk
  3. Formula Application — Applies research-backed multipliers grounded in empirical studies
  4. PERT Calculation — Produces expected values using three-point estimation
  5. Confidence Bands — Generates P50, P75, P90 intervals
  6. Output Formatting — Formats for Linear, JIRA, ClickUp, GitHub Issues, Monday, or GitLab
  7. Calibration — Feeds back actuals to improve future estimates

Examples

Single task:

"Estimate building a REST API with authentication using Claude Code"

Batch mode:

"Estimate these 12 JIRA tickets for our next sprint"

With context:

"We have 3 developers using AI agents for ~60% of implementation. Estimate this feature."

Best Practices

  • Start with a single task to calibrate before moving to batch mode
  • Feed back actual completion times to improve the calibration system
  • Use "instant mode" for quick T-shirt sizing without full PERT analysis
  • Be explicit about team composition and agent usage percentage

Common Pitfalls

  • Problem: Overconfident estimates Solution: Use P75 or P90 for commitments, not P50

Read the full file on GitHub · 85 lines

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 9d ago First seen · 85 lines · 25 tokens per session scan A 351e126b5d8e

Subscribe to this mod's changes

progressive-estimation is a skill published in the GitHub repository ratnesh-maurya/cursor-claude-personas (8 stars, last pushed 5mo ago), licensed MIT. It adds 25 tokens to every session and 694 once invoked, about $0.0001 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-09-03.

Related

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