market-research

Market Research Skill

Performs deep market research for iOS/macOS app ideas. Provides market sizing, growth analysis, and opportunity assessment.

When This Skill Activates

Use this Skill when the user wants to:

• Understand market size and potential
• Analyze market growth trends
• Calculate TAM/SAM/SOM
• Assess market maturity
• Identify entry barriers
• Understand distribution channels
• Estimate revenue potential
• Deep-dive after initial problem discovery

This is a follow-up to the product-agent skill — use this when you need market depth.

What This Skill Does

1. Market Sizing (TAM/SAM/SOM)

• TAM (Total Addressable Market): Total revenue opportunity if you captured 100% of the market
• SAM (Serviceable Available Market): Segment of TAM you can reach with your product/distribution
• SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market): Realistic share you can capture in near term (1-3 years)

2. Growth Analysis

• Historical growth rates
• Future projections (3-5 years)
• Growth drivers
• Market trends

3. Market Maturity Assessment

• Stage: Emerging, Growing, Mature, or Declining
• Market lifecycle position
• Implications for new entrants

4. Entry Barriers

• Technical barriers
• Brand/network effects
• Regulatory requirements
• Capital requirements
• Customer acquisition costs

5. Distribution Channels

• How apps in this category reach users
• App Store dynamics
• Alternative channels (web, enterprise, etc.)

6. Revenue Potential

• Average revenue per user (ARPU)
• Conversion rates
• LTV (Lifetime Value)
• Revenue models in use

Output Structure

{
  "market_category": "Task Management",
  "market_sizing": {
    "tam": {
      "value": "$4.5B",
      "description": "Global productivity software market",
      "methodology": "Total potential revenue if product served all users globally"
    },
    "sam": {
      "value": "$900M",
      "description": "iOS/macOS task management apps (20% of TAM)",
      "methodology": "Addressable via App Store distribution on Apple platforms"
    },
    "som": {
      "value": "$45M",
      "description": "Realistic 3-year capture (5% of SAM)",
      "methodology": "Based on typical indie app market share penetration"
    }
  },
  "market_growth": {
    "historical_growth": "12% CAGR (2021-2025)",
    "projected_growth": "10% CAGR (2026-2030)",
    "growth_drivers": [
      "Remote work adoption",
      "Increased digital task management",
      "Mobile-first workflows"
    ],
    "headwinds": [
      "Market saturation",
      "Consolidation toward major players"
    ]
  },
  "market_maturity": {
    "stage": "Mature",
    "characteristics": [
      "Established leaders (Todoist, Things)",
      "Clear product categories",
      "Slowing growth rate",
      "Focus on feature differentiation"
    ],
    "implications": "Differentiation critical. Hard to compete on basics. Must have unique angle."
  },
  "entry_barriers": {
    "low": [
      "Technical implementation (task management is straightforward)"
    ],
    "medium": [
      "Building user base in crowded market",
      "Achieving reliable sync across devices"
    ],
    "high": [
      "Brand recognition (Todoist, Things have 10+ years)",
      "Network effects (team collaboration features)",
      "Customer switching costs (data lock-in)"
    ],
    "overall_assessment": "Medium-High - Technical execution is achievable, but market position is difficult"
  },
  "distribution_channels": {
    "primary": {
      "channel": "App Store",
      "percentage": "75%",
      "dynamics": "Discoverability challenging. ASO critical. Top charts dominated by established apps."
    },
    "secondary": [
      {
        "channel": "Direct website",
        "percentage": "15%",
        "dynamics": "For power users. Allows higher pricing. Better for subscription retention."
      },
      {
        "channel": "Word of mouth / Communities",
        "percentage": "10%",
        "dynamics": "Productivity communities, Reddit, Twitter. High-intent users."
      }
    ]
  },
  "revenue_potential": {
    "arpu": {
      "freemium": "$12/year (5% convert at $20/year)",
      "paid_only": "$30-40/year",
      "premium": "$60-100/year"
    },
    "conversion_rates": {
      "free_to_paid": "3-7% industry average",
      "trial_to_paid": "15-25% with 14-day trial"
    },
    "ltv": "$150-300 (2-5 year user lifecycle)",
    "realistic_year_1": "$50K-200K (1K-5K users at $40 ARPU)",
    "realistic_year_3": "$500K-2M (10K-50K users with growth)",
    "path_to_scale": "Requires strong differentiation, word-of-mouth growth, and retention >85%"
  },
  "market_opportunity_score": "6/10 - Moderate",
  "reasoning": "Large market with growth, but mature and competitive. Success requires clear differentiation and excellent execution. Not a 'gold rush' market, but sustainable business possible for well-positioned product."
}