polymarket-trading

polymarket-trading is a skill for Codex from san-npm/skills-ws. It costs 79 tokens per session (5,018 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A tool for analysing sports prediction markets on Polymarket, where people trade contracts on possible future results. It compares bookmaker odds with market prices and can place trades after you confirm.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to scan sports markets, convert bookmaker odds into estimated probabilities, look for potentially positive-value favourites, and optionally place confirmed trades.
Why use it?
It helps identify prices that may imply a better chance of profit than the bookmaker odds suggest. Trading is speculative, and you can lose your stake; legal access varies by location.

Skill for Codex

Written for Codex: agents/openai.yaml present. Also seen: positional $N argument.

Good fit Use it to scan sports markets, convert bookmaker odds into estimated probabilities, look for potentially positive-value favourites, and optionally place confirmed trades.

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Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/san-npm/skills-ws/polymarket-trading
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add san-npm/skills-ws --skill polymarket-trading
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/san-npm/skills-ws

Made for: Codex.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for polymarket-trading

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/san-npm/skills-ws/polymarket-trading/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/san-npm/skills-ws/polymarket-trading)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/san-npm/skills-ws/polymarket-trading"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/san-npm/skills-ws/polymarket-trading/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for polymarket-trading

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/san-npm/skills-ws/polymarket-trading"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/san-npm/skills-ws/polymarket-trading.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 79 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 5,018 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 1 finding. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00079 $0.05018
Opus 5 $0.00039 $0.02509
Sonnet 5 $0.00016 $0.01004
Haiku 4.5 $0.00008 $0.00502

Measured 11d ago against content hash eb282607b278, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-11, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

polymarket-trading scanned grade A with 1 finding against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 11d ago.

The scan reads SKILL.md. This mod also ships 1 executable file (scripts/scan.mjs), listed below but not scanned — reading those needs a real analyzer, not pattern matching.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Makes network callslowCapability

Not a fault in itself. Listed so you know the mod talks to something, and to what.

curl "https://data-api.polymarket.com/positions?user=$POLYMARKET_WALLET"
skills/polymarket-trading/SKILL.md · 284 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 284 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Polymarket Sports Prediction Markets

⚠️ FINANCIAL & LEGAL RISK DISCLAIMER — READ FIRST

This skill moves real money into a speculative prediction market. Capital is at risk and you can lose 100% of any stake. There are no guaranteed payouts. Past results never predict future outcomes, and "high-conviction favorites" lose routinely.

  • This is not financial advice. It is an analysis-and-execution aid only. You are solely responsible for every trade.
  • Legality varies by jurisdiction and changes fast. Prediction-market / event-contract access may be restricted, KYC-gated, or outright illegal where you live. As of mid-2026: the international Polymarket exchange is geoblocked for US IPs (2022 CFTC settlement); a separate Polymarket US venue (operated by QCX LLC, a CFTC-regulated DCM) requires full KYC and USD settlement; and several US states have challenged or banned prediction markets (e.g. Minnesota ban effective 1 Aug 2026). Verify your own eligibility before doing anything: https://polymarket.com and https://help.polymarket.com.
  • You must comply with KYC, age limits, the platform Terms of Service, sanctions rules, and local gambling law. Do not attempt to bypass geoblocks or KYC.
  • You are responsible for your own taxes and record-keeping on any winnings/losses. Consult a qualified professional.
  • Practice responsible gambling. Set a hard bankroll and loss limit, never stake money you cannot afford to lose, and stop when you hit your limit. (US: 1-800-GAMBLER.)

Run the read-only scan freely. Never execute a trade without explicit, per-trade user confirmation of amount, market, outcome, token ID, chain, max price, and worst-case loss.

⚠️ STRATEGY RULES (Non-Negotiable)

  1. Sports markets only by default — This skill is scoped to sports moneylines. Avoid politics, crypto, and geopolitics markets here: they are harder to price from a clean odds benchmark, can move on non-public information, and have thinner, more reflexive liquidity. This is a scoping choice, not a claim that any specific market is rigged.
  2. De-vig before you judge a favorite — Raw 1/decimal_odds includes the bookmaker's margin (vig) and overstates probability. Always normalize per bookmaker (see "De-vig math") before applying any probability threshold. Minimum 70% de-vigged consensus probability to qualify as a favorite.
  3. Require positive expected value (+EV) — A favorite is only a trade if the executable Polymarket price is below the de-vigged true probability after fees and slippage. Win rate is not EV: a true 70% favorite bought at 0.75 is negative EV and must be skipped. See "Edge & EV".
  4. No long shots. Low-probability / high-payout punts are out of scope.
  5. The best trade is sometimes no trade — If nothing clears the de-vig + +EV bar, say so. Never lower the threshold to manufacture a pick.
  6. Verify the Polymarket market exists — Many matches are not listed. Never recommend a bet without confirming the PM market and resolving the correct outcome token_id.
  7. Size by bankroll and liquidity, not by conviction — Bet size is not unlimited. It is capped by (a) your pre-set bankroll/loss limit, (b) order-book depth at your price (slippage), and (c) any platform/market limits. See "Position sizing".
  8. Football 3-way markets need care — Win/Draw/Lose means a "win" outcome is priced against two alternatives. De-vig across all three outcomes per bookmaker; never compare a 2-way PM price to a non-normalized 3-way book number.

Read the full file on GitHub · 284 lines

Files

What ships with it

2 files beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 11d ago First seen · 284 lines · 79 tokens per session scan A eb282607b278

Subscribe to this mod's changes

polymarket-trading is a skill published in the GitHub repository san-npm/skills-ws (2 stars, last pushed 4d ago), licensed MIT. It adds 79 tokens to every session and 5,018 once invoked, about $0.0004 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 1 finding (makes network calls). No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-31.

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