Getting it into your agent
One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.
npx skills add shinpr/claude-code-discover --skill hypothesis-disciplinegit clone --depth 1 https://github.com/shinpr/claude-code-discoverWrote this? Show the measurements
A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.
[](https://agentmods.dev/skills/shinpr/claude-code-discover/hypothesis-discipline)<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/shinpr/claude-code-discover/hypothesis-discipline"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/shinpr/claude-code-discover/hypothesis-discipline.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>What it costs to keep this loaded
Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.
| Model | Per session | Once invoked |
|---|---|---|
| Fable 5.1 | $0.00045 | $0.00851 |
| Opus 5 | $0.00023 | $0.00426 |
| Sonnet 5 | $0.00009 | $0.00170 |
| Haiku 4.5 | $0.00005 | $0.00085 |
Grade A, and why
hypothesis-discipline scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 7d ago.
A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.
Nothing flagged
None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.
How it starts
The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 83 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.
Hypothesis Discipline
Core Principle
A hypothesis is not a guess — it is a structured statement with clear validation criteria and a time budget. Every hypothesis must answer: "How will we know if this is true or false?"
Hypothesis Characteristics
- Hypotheses exist at every level of the OST hierarchy (Outcome → Opportunity → Solution → Assumption)
- Each hypothesis has a target level attribute indicating which OST level it addresses
- Hypotheses follow an ADR-style lifecycle — a single file tracks the full journey from draft to conclusion
- Rejected and invalidated hypotheses remain in their lifecycle file as learning assets
Hypothesis Lifecycle
draft → testing → validated → adopted
→ rejected (validated but not adopted)
→ invalidated (disproven by evidence)
→ inconclusive (evidence gathered but insufficient to confirm or deny)
→ timeout (deadline passed, decision needed: continue or stop)
Hypothesis File Schema
The authoritative schema is defined in references/hypothesis-template.md. Key fields:
id: HYPO-NNNlevel: outcome / opportunity / solution / assumptionstatus: draft / testing / validated / invalidated / inconclusive / adopted / rejected / timeoutconfidence: per-risk scores (value, usability, feasibility, viability) on 0-10 scaletime-budgetanddeadline: validation time constraints
Validation Criteria Requirements
Every hypothesis must define before testing begins:
- We believe that — the hypothesis statement
- We'll know we're right when — measurable success criteria
- We'll know we're wrong when — measurable failure criteria
- Validation method — how we will test (prototype, data analysis, interview, code spike, market research)
- Time budget — maximum time investment before forced decision
Time Budget and Cutoff
- Every hypothesis gets a time budget (e.g., 1d, 1w, 2w)
- A deadline sets the hard cutoff date
- When deadline passes without conclusion → status becomes
timeout - Timeout forces a decision: extend (with justification), pivot, or abandon
- Bound every validation with a time budget and deadline so exploration ends in an explicit decision
What ships with it
1 file beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.
What this file has done since we first saw it
Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.
- 7d ago First seen · 83 lines · 45 tokens per session scan A ec7314dc3e8a
hypothesis-discipline is a skill published in the GitHub repository shinpr/claude-code-discover (10 stars, last pushed 8d ago), licensed MIT. It adds 45 tokens to every session and 851 once invoked, about $0.0002 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-31.
Other skills, from other repositories
product-principles
Defines 4 Risks confidence thresholds, OST hierarchy levels, Knowledge Pyramid tiers, and state design requirements. Use when evaluating user stories, setting confidence scores, referencing OST levels, scoping MVP, or determining validation sufficiency.
hypothesis-discipline
Manages hypothesis lifecycle, enforces validation criteria, time budgets, and confidence scoring rules. Use when creating hypotheses, updating confidence scores, setting validation criteria, handling timeouts, or recording validation results.
blueprint-standards
Defines structural design artifact formats — information architecture, user flows, content model, brand direction, Visual Tokens, and AI interaction model. Use when creating or reviewing design artifacts that precede prototype generation.
recipe-validate
Validates a hypothesis with a risk-appropriate method and records decision-relevant evidence. Use when testing Value, Usability, Feasibility, or Viability assumptions.
recipe-define
Creates a delivery-ready PRD from validated hypotheses with material 4 Risks evidence and necessary traceability. Use when turning validation results into requirements or user stories.
recipe-discover
Frames product Opportunities and creates decision-relevant hypotheses from available evidence. Use when exploring a problem, market opportunity, or user need.