risk-ai

Risk AI 🛡️

Your portfolio's guardian angel. Institutional-grade risk management that protects your capital 24/7.

Risk Metrics

Value at Risk (VaR)

Maximum expected loss at a given confidence level.

kit risk var

# Output:
📊 Value at Risk Analysis
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Portfolio Value: $100,000

VaR (1 Day):
• 95% Confidence: -$3,450 (-3.45%)
  → 95% sure we won't lose more than $3,450 today
  
• 99% Confidence: -$5,230 (-5.23%)
  → 99% sure we won't lose more than $5,230 today

VaR (1 Week):
• 95% Confidence: -$7,820 (-7.82%)
• 99% Confidence: -$11,450 (-11.45%)

Historical VaR (Based on last 252 days):
• Worst Day: -8.7% ($8,700)
• Worst Week: -15.2% ($15,200)
• Worst Month: -28.4% ($28,400)

Current Risk Level: MODERATE ⚠️
Suggested Action: Consider reducing BTC exposure by 10%

Expected Shortfall (CVaR)

Average loss when VaR is exceeded.

kit risk cvar

# Output:
📊 Expected Shortfall (CVaR)
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

If we exceed our 95% VaR, the expected loss is:
• 1 Day CVaR: -$5,120 (-5.12%)
• 1 Week CVaR: -$11,890 (-11.89%)

Interpretation:
On the worst 5% of days, we expect to lose ~$5,120 on average.
This is the "tail risk" that VaR doesn't capture.

Portfolio Beta

Correlation with overall market.

kit risk beta

# Output:
📊 Portfolio Beta Analysis
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Overall Portfolio Beta: 1.23
→ Portfolio moves 23% more than the market

By Asset:
┌─────────┬────────┬─────────┬────────────────────┐
│ Asset   │ Weight │ Beta    │ Contribution       │
├─────────┼────────┼─────────┼────────────────────┤
│ BTC     │ 50%    │ 1.00    │ 0.50               │
│ ETH     │ 30%    │ 1.35    │ 0.41               │
│ SOL     │ 10%    │ 1.80    │ 0.18               │
│ USDT    │ 10%    │ 0.00    │ 0.00               │
└─────────┴────────┴─────────┴────────────────────┘

Recommendation:
Portfolio is 23% more volatile than market.
To reduce to beta of 1.0, reduce SOL and ETH exposure.