Getting it into your agent
One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.
npx skills add Superior-Trade/superior-skills --skill probability-momentumgit clone --depth 1 https://github.com/Superior-Trade/superior-skillsWrote this? Show the measurements
A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.
[](https://agentmods.dev/skills/superior-trade/superior-skills/probability-momentum)<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/superior-trade/superior-skills/probability-momentum"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/superior-trade/superior-skills/probability-momentum/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/superior-trade/superior-skills/probability-momentum"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/superior-trade/superior-skills/probability-momentum.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>- NVIDIA SkillSpector pass
What it costs to keep this loaded
Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.
| Model | Per session | Once invoked |
|---|---|---|
| Fable 5.1 | $0.00023 | $0.00621 |
| Opus 5 | $0.00012 | $0.00311 |
| Sonnet 5 | $0.00005 | $0.00124 |
| Haiku 4.5 | $0.00002 | $0.00062 |
Grade A, and why
probability-momentum scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 7d ago.
A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.
Nothing flagged
None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.
How it starts
The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 73 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.
Strategy: Polymarket · Probability Momentum
When to use
Use this when someone asks for momentum, trend following, breakout, follow-the-crowd behavior, fast-moving crypto milestones, or rapid probability acceleration.
What the agent should look for
- Canonical Polymarket market from
GET /context/markets?venue=polymarket. backtest_ready: true.- Sufficient filled-trade history for the requested lookback window.
- Rising probability on last-trade filled ticks.
- Elevated fill counts or larger notional during the move.
- Market not too close to resolution unless user explicitly accepts expiry risk.
Backtest fit with filled data
Good fit for this archetype. Filled TradeTick history can validate whether momentum would have produced fill-driven entries, exits, and directional exposure.
Limit: filled-trade backtests do not prove maker queue position, maker rebates, or order-book depth. Treat this as taker-style behavior evidence, not certainty.
Strategy logic
Enter YES when recent probability rises more than a threshold over lookback_ticks. Exit when exit_after_ticks is reached, or when momentum stalls if an exit condition is included.
Nautilus strategy shape
subscribe_trade_ticks(instrument_id)to stream TradeTicks.- Use
on_trade_tickas the main event handler. - Submit market or conservative IOC orders.
- Track open position and fill state in
on_order_filled.
Example strategyConfig
{
"lookback_ticks": 5,
"momentum_threshold": 0.02,
"order_size": 10,
"exit_after_ticks": 25,
"max_entries": 3
}
Iteration knobs
| Knob | Effect |
|---|---|
lookback_ticks |
Larger values reduce noise; smaller values react faster. |
momentum_threshold |
Higher values reduce frequency and require stronger momentum. |
order_size |
Larger values increase PnL sensitivity and liquidity exposure. |
exit_after_ticks |
Shorter values trim quickly; longer values hold trend. |
max_entries |
Caps repeated entries in choppy markets. |
What this file has done since we first saw it
Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.
- 7d ago Changed a9a810dd588d
- 12d ago First seen · 73 lines · 23 tokens per session scan A f5fea08af34d
probability-momentum is a skill published in the GitHub repository Superior-Trade/superior-skills (209 stars, last pushed 2d ago), licensed MIT. It adds 23 tokens to every session and 621 once invoked, about $0.0001 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.
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