trade-thesis

trade-thesis is a skill for Claude Code from Superior-Trade/superior-skills. It costs 69 tokens per session (1,906 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A pre-trade checklist for examining a proposed investment or trading idea from both positive and negative angles. It includes the reason for the trade, what would disprove it, and how much capital may be appropriate.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it before deploying a new strategy with live funds or deciding whether to trade an asset. It helps prepare bull and bear cases, invalidation criteria, conviction checks, and sizing rationale.
Why use it?
It makes the assumptions and failure conditions explicit before real money is committed. This helps separate a testable plan from a vague feeling about the market.

Skill for Claude Code

Written for Claude Code: shipped in a Claude Code plugin. Also seen: positional $N argument.

Part of the superior-skills plugin — 31 skills shipped together

Good fit Use it before deploying a new strategy with live funds or deciding whether to trade an asset. It helps prepare bull and bear cases, invalidation criteria, conviction checks, and sizing rationale.

Compare 6 skills from other repositories ↓
Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/superior-trade/superior-skills/trade-thesis
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add Superior-Trade/superior-skills --skill trade-thesis
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/Superior-Trade/superior-skills

Made for: Claude Code.

Or install superior-skills, the plugin that ships this one along with the rest of its 31 skills.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for trade-thesis

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/superior-trade/superior-skills/trade-thesis/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/superior-trade/superior-skills/trade-thesis)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/superior-trade/superior-skills/trade-thesis"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/superior-trade/superior-skills/trade-thesis/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for trade-thesis

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/superior-trade/superior-skills/trade-thesis"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/superior-trade/superior-skills/trade-thesis.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 69 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 1,906 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe. Third-party audits
  • NVIDIA SkillSpector pass 7 Sept 2026
How audits are shown
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00069 $0.01906
Opus 5 $0.00034 $0.00953
Sonnet 5 $0.00014 $0.00381
Haiku 4.5 $0.00007 $0.00191

Measured 13d ago against content hash 9ab281b03f7f, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-12, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

trade-thesis scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 13d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

skills/trade-thesis/SKILL.md · 130 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 130 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Pre-Trade Thesis Builder

A structured framework the agent produces before any live deployment of a new strategy idea. Forces two-sided analysis and a measurable invalidation level so every trade has a thesis that can be killed.

When to produce a thesis

  • The user proposes a new trade idea ("I want to long ETH", "thinking about a funding squeeze on SOL")
  • The user asks "should I trade X" or "is this a good setup"
  • The agent is about to deploy a new strategy to live for the first time
  • The user explicitly asks for a bull/bear case, conviction check, or pre-trade analysis

When to skip

  • Backtests and parameter sweeps — the thesis is for live capital, not for exploring an idea
  • Dry-run / paper deployments — no real money at risk
  • Copy-trading — the thesis belongs to the source trader, not the copier
  • Re-deploying a previously validated strategy — if the user already ran this setup live and is restarting it, skip unless market conditions changed materially

Thesis format

Produce all six sections below. Each section is 2-4 bullet points max. This is a pre-trade checklist, not a research paper.

1. Thesis statement

One sentence: what is the bet, which direction, what timeframe.

Force clarity. "Long ETH perp on a funding squeeze setup, targeting a 3-5% move over 24-48h" is a thesis. "ETH looks bullish" is not.

2. Bull case

2-3 concrete reasons this trade works. Every reason must reference observable, checkable data:

  • Price action the agent can verify via price_check (e.g., "price reclaimed the 4h EMA-50 and is holding above")
  • Volume dynamics via volume_momentum_check (e.g., "RVOL is 2.3x on the breakout candle")
  • Funding / OI via the alpha scan (e.g., "funding APR is -18%, shorts are paying 0.002% per hour")
  • On-chain flows if available (e.g., "exchange outflows spiked 3x over 24h")

No vague claims like "market sentiment is improving" or "BTC looks strong." If it cannot be checked with a tool call, it does not belong in the bull case.

Read the full file on GitHub · 130 lines

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 13d ago First seen · 130 lines · 69 tokens per session scan A 9ab281b03f7f

Subscribe to this mod's changes

trade-thesis is a skill published in the GitHub repository Superior-Trade/superior-skills (209 stars, last pushed 2d ago), licensed MIT. It adds 69 tokens to every session and 1,906 once invoked, about $0.0003 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.

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