ev-calculator

ev-calculator is a skill for Claude Code, Codex from tellmefrankie/news-engine. It costs 0 tokens per session (812 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A scenario calculator for estimating the expected value of stock positions, meaning the probability-weighted average result across possible outcomes.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to evaluate portfolio positions, estimate possible gains or losses, assess confidence and data quality, and help size positions.
Why use it?
It replaces a single guess about a trade with bull, base, and bear cases that account for evidence such as options activity, earnings history, short interest, and sector movement.

Skill for Claude CodeCodex

Written for no agent in particular: nothing here depends on one. Also seen: positional $N argument.

Good fit Use it to evaluate portfolio positions, estimate possible gains or losses, assess confidence and data quality, and help size positions.

Compare 6 skills from other repositories ↓
Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/tellmefrankie/news-engine/ev-calculator
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add tellmefrankie/news-engine --skill ev-calculator
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/tellmefrankie/news-engine

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for ev-calculator

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/tellmefrankie/news-engine/ev-calculator/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/tellmefrankie/news-engine/ev-calculator)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/tellmefrankie/news-engine/ev-calculator"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/tellmefrankie/news-engine/ev-calculator/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for ev-calculator

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/tellmefrankie/news-engine/ev-calculator"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/tellmefrankie/news-engine/ev-calculator.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 0 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 812 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00000 $0.00812
Opus 5 $0.00000 $0.00406
Sonnet 5 $0.00000 $0.00162
Haiku 4.5 $0.00000 $0.00081

Measured 11d ago against content hash 3f3b139d3991, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-11, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

ev-calculator scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 11d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

skills/ev-calculator/SKILL.md · 78 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 78 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Expected Value Calculator (Free)

Calculate expected value for stock positions using scenario-based modeling. Combines options data, earnings history, and short interest to size positions with mathematical discipline.

What it does

For each position, builds probability-weighted scenarios:

  • Bull case: Catalyst-driven upside (earnings beat, sector rotation, short squeeze)
  • Base case: Normal trading range continuation
  • Bear case: Downside risks (earnings miss, macro shock, sector rotation out)

Weights scenarios by:

  • Options sentiment (real calls vs puts, excluding lottery)
  • Historical earnings surprise patterns
  • Short interest level and squeeze potential
  • Sector momentum

Usage

Calculate expected value for my portfolio:
- RXRX: 500 shares @ $3.26, stop-loss $2.85
- KTOS: 200 shares @ $56.99, stop-loss $52.00
- TEM:  100 shares @ $48.46, stop-loss $49.75

Use 3 scenarios (bull/base/bear) with probabilities.
Include confidence level and data quality assessment.

Example Output

=== EV Analysis — 2026-05-13 ===

RXRX  $3.26 | Position: $1,630
  Bull  (30%): $4.80 → +47.2% → EV: +$770
  Base  (45%): $3.40 → +4.3%  → EV: +$63
  Bear  (25%): $2.85 → -12.6% → EV: -$205
  ─────────────────────────────────
  Weighted EV: +$628 (+38.5%)   [HIGH confidence]
  Note: Options P/C 0.38 supports bull case. 84% lottery calls stripped.

KTOS  $56.99 | Position: $11,398
  Bull  (35%): $68.00 → +19.3% → EV: +$770
  Base  (40%): $58.50 → +2.6%  → EV: +$121
  Bear  (25%): $52.00 → -8.8%  → EV: -$249
  ─────────────────────────────────
  Weighted EV: +$642 (+5.6%)    [MEDIUM confidence]
  Note: Sector (defense) momentum positive. IV elevated at 170%.

TEM   $48.46 | Position: $4,846
  Bull  (25%): $56.00 → +15.6% → EV: +$188
  Base  (40%): $49.00 → +1.1%  → EV: +$22
  Bear  (35%): $49.75 → +2.7%  → EV: STOP
  ─────────────────────────────────
  Weighted EV: -$41 (-0.8%)     [LOW confidence]
  ⚠️ BELOW STOP-LOSS — review position

Confidence Levels

Read the full file on GitHub · 78 lines

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 11d ago First seen · 78 lines · 0 tokens per session scan A 3f3b139d3991

Subscribe to this mod's changes

ev-calculator is a skill published in the GitHub repository tellmefrankie/news-engine (1 stars, last pushed 4mo ago), licensed MIT. It costs nothing until one of its globs matches a file; then it loads 812 tokens. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-31.