thinking-thought-experiment

thinking-thought-experiment is a skill for Claude Code from tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills. It costs 46 tokens per session (795 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A structured thought experiment for examining what might happen when a real test is too costly, rare, or irreversible. It changes one variable, holds the other conditions steady, and follows the cause-and-effect chain.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to reason about outages, extreme load, policy changes, edge cases, or other situations that are hard to test directly. Use a real test when one is cheap and practical.
Why use it?
It can expose failure points and missing safeguards before a difficult or expensive decision, while keeping conclusions within clear limits.

Skill for Claude Code

Written for Claude Code: disable-model-invocation in frontmatter.

Part of the cc-thinking-skills plugin — 28 skills shipped together

Good fit Use it to reason about outages, extreme load, policy changes, edge cases, or other situations that are hard to test directly. Use a real test when one is cheap and practical.

Compare 6 skills from other repositories ↓
Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills/thinking-thought-experiment
About the project

Claude Code Thinking Skills is a catalogue of 28 portable skills that give coding agents structured procedures for reasoning about decisions, diagnosis, risk, strategy, and related problems. It is intended for Claude Code, GitHub Copilot, Codex, Cursor, and other tools that support Agent Skills.

tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills · 1,300 stars · on GitHub

Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills --skill thinking-thought-experiment
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills

Made for: Claude Code.

Or install cc-thinking-skills, the plugin that ships this one along with the rest of its 28 skills.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for thinking-thought-experiment

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills/thinking-thought-experiment/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills/thinking-thought-experiment)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills/thinking-thought-experiment"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills/thinking-thought-experiment/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for thinking-thought-experiment

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills/thinking-thought-experiment"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills/thinking-thought-experiment.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 46 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 795 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe. Third-party audits
  • Socket pass 12 Mar 2026
  • Snyk pass 12 Mar 2026
  • NVIDIA SkillSpector pass 7 Sept 2026
How audits are shown
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00046 $0.00795
Opus 5 $0.00023 $0.00398
Sonnet 5 $0.00009 $0.00159
Haiku 4.5 $0.00005 $0.00080

Measured 11d ago against content hash 782ce38969ef, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-11, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

thinking-thought-experiment scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 11d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

skills/thinking-thought-experiment/SKILL.md · 54 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 54 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Thought Experiment

When empiricism is out of reach, run a disciplined counterfactual: one isolated change, fixed conditions, step-by-step mechanism, and a hard bound on implications.

When to Use

  • You need behavior under failure, scale, or policy you cannot cheaply trigger or measure (region outage, 100x load, one-way architecture).
  • A decision is expensive or irreversible and a mental trace can surface break points before commit.
  • Edge cases are too costly to stage, but a mechanistic chain can still expose missing controls.

When NOT to Use

  • A cheap real test exists (load test, flag, query, spike) → run the test; do not substitute imagination.
  • Adversarial security attack-path work → use red-team structure, not free-form scenarios.
  • You already know the mechanism and only need a decision under known facts → decide; do not dramatize.
  • Vague "what if everything" brainstorming without a single isolated variable → tighten or stop.

Procedure

  1. State the question and isolation. Name exactly one primary variable or counterfactual change. Freeze all other conditions as the control world. Reject multi-variable "and also" scenarios.
  2. Fix initial conditions. Specify system state, load, configuration, actors, and what is not changed. Write values concrete enough that another agent could replay the setup.
  3. Trace the mechanism step by step. From t0, record what fails, queues, retries, or adapts next—and why—using known components and policies only. No hand-wavy "then everything collapses"; each step needs a causal link.
  4. Extract invariants and break points. Note what still holds (invariants) and the first step where the system violates a requirement (capacity, correctness, safety, UX). Mark assumptions that, if false, void the chain.
  5. Bound implications. Map insights only to actions or checks justified by the chain (limits, guards, monitoring, redesign). Label speculative leaps beyond the isolation as out of bound.
  6. Name a discriminating real check, then stop. For the weakest link, state the cheapest observation or experiment that would confirm or kill it. Stop after one controlled chain with bounded implications; if a link is cheaply testable now, exit to that test instead of further imagination.

Read the full file on GitHub · 54 lines

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 11d ago First seen · 54 lines · 46 tokens per session scan A 782ce38969ef

Subscribe to this mod's changes

thinking-thought-experiment is a skill published in the GitHub repository tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills (1,300 stars, last pushed 1mo ago), licensed MIT. It adds 46 tokens to every session and 795 once invoked, about $0.0002 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.

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