what-if-oracle

what-if-oracle is a skill for Claude Code from TobiasBlask/open-paper-machine. It costs 123 tokens per session (1,971 once invoked), scanned A, a copy of what-if-oracle, MIT.

A structured method for exploring possible outcomes of a hypothetical change or event. It maps several branches instead of giving only one prediction.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it for questions such as what could happen after a supplier raises prices, a decision changes, or a project goes wrong.
Why use it?
It makes uncertain decisions easier to examine by showing different paths, consequences, and risks.

Skill for Claude Code

Written for Claude Code: allowed-tools in frontmatter.

Part of the open-academic-paper-machine plugin — 33 skills, 21 commands, 4 agents shipped together

Good fit Use it for questions such as what could happen after a supplier raises prices, a decision changes, or a project goes wrong.

Compare 6 skills from other repositories ↓
Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/tobiasblask/open-paper-machine/what-if-oracle
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add TobiasBlask/open-paper-machine --skill what-if-oracle
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/TobiasBlask/open-paper-machine

Made for: Claude Code.

Or install open-academic-paper-machine, the plugin that ships this one along with the rest of its 33 skills, 21 commands, 4 agents.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for what-if-oracle

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/tobiasblask/open-paper-machine/what-if-oracle/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/tobiasblask/open-paper-machine/what-if-oracle)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/tobiasblask/open-paper-machine/what-if-oracle"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/tobiasblask/open-paper-machine/what-if-oracle/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for what-if-oracle

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/tobiasblask/open-paper-machine/what-if-oracle"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/tobiasblask/open-paper-machine/what-if-oracle.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 123 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 1,971 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.
Origin 100% copy Near-identical to another mod in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00123 $0.01971
Opus 5 $0.00062 $0.00986
Sonnet 5 $0.00025 $0.00394
Haiku 4.5 $0.00012 $0.00197

Measured 11d ago against content hash 6696e69bfae3, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-11, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

what-if-oracle scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 11d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

Origin

This is a copy

100% identical to what-if-oracle — 0 lines differ, which has more behind it and is treated as the original. This page carries a canonical link to it rather than competing with it.

scientific-skills/what-if-oracle/SKILL.md · 169 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 169 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

What-If Oracle — Possibility Space Explorer

A structured system for exploring uncertain futures through rigorous multi-branch scenario analysis. Instead of one prediction, the Oracle maps the full possibility space — branching timelines where each path has its own logic, probability, and consequences.

Based on the What-If Statement paradigm: the idea that speculative questions ("What if X?") are not idle daydreaming but a fundamental computing operation — the mind's way of simulating futures before committing resources to one.

Published research: The What-If Statement (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18736841) | IDNA Consolidation v2 (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18807387)

Core Principle: 0·IF·1

Every scenario analysis has three elements:

  • 0 — The unexpressed state (what hasn't happened yet, the potential)
  • 1 — The expressed state (what IS, the current reality)
  • IF — The conditional bond (the decision, event, or change that transforms 0 into 1)

The quality of the analysis depends on the precision of the IF. A vague "what if things go wrong?" produces vague results. A precise "what if our primary supplier raises prices 30% in Q3?" produces actionable intelligence.

How to Run the Oracle

Phase 1 — Frame the Question

Take the user's What-If question and sharpen it:

Decompose into components:

  • The Variable: What specific thing changes? (one variable per analysis)
  • The Magnitude: By how much? (quantify if possible)
  • The Timeframe: Over what period?
  • The Context: What's the current state before the change?

If the question is vague, sharpen it:

  • "What if AI takes over?" → "What if 40% of current knowledge-work tasks are automated by AI within 3 years in [specific industry]?"
  • "What if we fail?" → "What if monthly revenue stays below $5K for 6 consecutive months starting now?"

Present the sharpened question to the user for confirmation before proceeding.

Read the full file on GitHub · 169 lines

Files

What ships with it

1 file beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 11d ago First seen · 169 lines · 123 tokens per session scan A 6696e69bfae3

Subscribe to this mod's changes

what-if-oracle is a skill published in the GitHub repository TobiasBlask/open-paper-machine (18 stars, last pushed 5mo ago), licensed MIT. It adds 123 tokens to every session and 1,971 once invoked, about $0.0006 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. It is 100% identical to what-if-oracle, differing in 0 lines, and is treated as a copy.

Related

Other skills, from other repositories

meta-tags-optimizer

Optimize title tags, meta descriptions, Open Graph, and Twitter cards for maximum click-through rate. Generates multiple A/B test variations with character counting and SERP preview. Use when asked to "optimize title tag", "write meta description", "improve CTR", "Open Graph tags", "fix my meta tags", "social media…

nowork-studio/notfair-plugin · 91 tokens

google-ads-audit

Google Ads account audit and business context setup. Use for account-health audits and business-context setup. Trigger on "audit my ads", "ads audit", "set up my ads", "onboard", "account overview", "how's my account", "ads health check", "what should I fix in my ads", or when the user is new to NotFair and hasn't run…

nowork-studio/notfair-plugin · 86 tokens

sxo

Search Experience Optimization (SXO) — the bridge between SEO and UX/CRO. Audits the full journey from the SERP click to the on-page goal: SERP click-through factors (title/meta/rich results that win the click), then post-click experience signals that keep users and drive conversions — above-the-fold relevance and…

nowork-studio/notfair-plugin · 235 tokens

critical-code-reviewer

Rigorously review code or pull requests for correctness, security, accessibility, maintainability, tests, and edge cases. Use when users request a critical code review, want a guided walkthrough of findings, need implementer-facing feedback, or want to prepare, create, or submit a GitHub pull request review.

posit-dev/skills · 67 tokens

shiny-bslib

Build modern Shiny dashboards and applications using bslib (Bootstrap 5). Use when creating new Shiny apps, modernizing legacy apps (fluidPage, fluidRow/column, tabsetPanel, wellPanel, shinythemes), or working with bslib page layouts, grid systems, cards, value boxes, navigation, sidebars, filling layouts, theming…

posit-dev/skills · 107 tokens

elixir-idioms

OTP/BEAM patterns and Elixir idioms — GenServer, Supervisor, Task, Registry, pattern matching, with chains, pipes. Use when designing processes or debugging BEAM issues.

oliver-kriska/claude-elixir-phoenix · 44 tokens