assess-pr-risk

Assess PR Risk

Estimates how risky a pull request is and how confident that estimate is, then recommends the next action for a human reviewer. Two axes: risk is a judgment about the change (how much damage if it is wrong, how hard to undo), and confidence is a judgment about the evidence base (what could and could not be verified). The routing table turns the two scores into one next action, so the reviewer can decide at a glance. This skill judges neither code craft (that is /review-pr), conformance (/verify-pr), nor product fit (/validate-pr); it runs alongside them in parallel, never reads their reports, and never revisits their verdicts.

Prerequisites

• Apply the shared SDLC conventions in skills/sdlc/references/shared.md (PR Review Reports for report location and posting rules).
• If no argument is provided, target the pull request from $PR_NUMBER (and $REPO).
• gh CLI authenticated with read access to the target repository
• git worktree available
• Self-contained evidence: the assessment needs only the diff, the codebase, and churn of the touched files; it never reads or waits for sibling reports (summarize-behavior-changes, adversarial-pr-review, analyze-test-coverage, validate-pr, verify-pr, review-pr)
• Orchestrators (review-pr-full, review-requested-prs) dispatch this skill concurrently with the analyze-test-coverage -> validate -> verify -> review chain and provide WORKTREE_DIR; because it shares no evidence with the chain, the parallel dispatch never weakens the estimate.

Skill attribution (GitHub)

Before posting to GitHub, read ../github-post-attribution/SKILL.md and append the footer for SKILL_DIR = assess-pr-risk.

Communication guidelines (outbound text)

Before composing any text posted or drafted on the user's behalf, apply communication-guidelines/SKILL.md.

Workflow

Fetch PR metadata + diff ($1)
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CLOSED or MERGED? --> note and stop
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Create git worktree on PR branch
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Gather evidence
(diff, codebase, tests in the diff,
 churn of touched files)
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Score risk factors (8, each Low/Medium/High)
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Score confidence (evidence-based rubric)
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Route the next action (risk x confidence matrix)
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Write assess-pr-risk.<sha>.md
Post if should-post-to-github allows
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Clean up worktree