store-sales-darts-chronos-blend

store-sales-darts-chronos-blend is a skill for Claude Code, Codex from topprismdata/cultivating-ml-agent. It costs 247 tokens per session (1,717 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A forecasting strategy that combines a neural foundation model with a tree-based model from a different model family. It describes a blend tested on the Kaggle Store Sales forecasting competition.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it for Store Sales-style time-series forecasting with Chronos-2 and a per-family LightGBM model.
Why use it?
Different model families can make different errors, so combining their forecasts may improve results when one model alone reaches a limit.

Skill for Claude CodeCodex

Written for no agent in particular: nothing here depends on one.

Good fit Use it for Store Sales-style time-series forecasting with Chronos-2 and a per-family LightGBM model.

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Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/topprismdata/cultivating-ml-agent/store-sales-darts-chronos-blend
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add topprismdata/cultivating-ml-agent --skill store-sales-darts-chronos-blend
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/topprismdata/cultivating-ml-agent

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

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README.md
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<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/topprismdata/cultivating-ml-agent/store-sales-darts-chronos-blend"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/topprismdata/cultivating-ml-agent/store-sales-darts-chronos-blend.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 247 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 1,717 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00247 $0.01717
Opus 5 $0.00123 $0.00859
Sonnet 5 $0.00049 $0.00343
Haiku 4.5 $0.00025 $0.00172

Measured 9d ago against content hash 5a1adfa0452e, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-12, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

store-sales-darts-chronos-blend scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 9d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

skills/examples/store-sales-darts-chronos-blend/SKILL.md · 124 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 124 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Store Sales — darts + Chronos-2 Cross-Family Blend

The Core Insight (why this beats single models)

A single strong model hits a ceiling. Blending two models only helps if they are from different algorithm families (low correlation). Same-family blends are useless even when both models are individually strong.

Blend Correlation Result
Chronos-2 v1 + Chronos-2 v2 (same family) 0.997 no gain (0.3939 → 0.3941)
Chronos-2 + darts-LightGBM (different families) 0.997* -0.009 gain (0.3939 → 0.3844)

* Even at 0.997 correlation the blend helped, because the error patterns diverge where it matters (different families miss different samples).

The Two Routes

Route 1: AutoGluon Chronos-2 ensemble (neural foundation model)

  • TimeSeriesPredictor with Chronos-2 (zero-shot + LoRA fine-tune) + Chronos-Bolt + DirectTabular
  • num_val_windows=5, local model paths to bypass HF download errors
  • Standalone LB: 0.39387
  • See autogluon-timeseries-strategy skill for Chronos-2 details

Route 2: darts LightGBM per-family (tree model, top-1 public method)

  • darts library's LightGBMModel with output_chunk_length=1 + predict(n=16)
  • darts handles recursive prediction AUTOMATICALLY — this is the critical advantage. Manual recursion (hand-written lag filling) is bug-prone: trend extrapolation blow-ups (4-7x too high), systematic under-prediction (-44%). darts' built-in recursion avoids all of these.
  • Per-family training (33 models, each on 54 stores — cross-store correlation helps)
  • Lag-config ensemble (7d / 365d / 730d / baseline, averaged)
  • Post-processing: store-family with zero sales in last 21 days → forecast 0
  • Standalone LB: 0.39953
from darts import TimeSeries
from darts.models import LightGBMModel

ts = TimeSeries.from_dataframe(df, time_col="date", value_cols="sales",
                               fill_missing_dates=True, freq="D", fillna_value=0)
model = LightGBMModel(lags=7, lags_future_covariates=(16, 1), output_chunk_length=1)
model.fit(series=[ts_store1, ts_store2, ...],   # multi-series: all stores of one family
          future_covariates=[cov_ts]*n_stores)
pred = model.predict(n=16, series=ts_store, future_covariates=cov_ts)  # auto-recursive

Read the full file on GitHub · 124 lines

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 9d ago First seen · 124 lines · 247 tokens per session scan A 5a1adfa0452e

Subscribe to this mod's changes

store-sales-darts-chronos-blend is a skill published in the GitHub repository topprismdata/cultivating-ml-agent (5 stars, last pushed 15d ago), licensed MIT. It adds 247 tokens to every session and 1,717 once invoked, about $0.0012 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-09-03.

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