us-market-bubble-detector

us-market-bubble-detector is a skill for Claude Code from tradermonty/claude-trading-skills. It costs 95 tokens per session (4,909 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A market-analysis guide that estimates whether US stock prices may be in a bubble using measured indicators such as the VIX, options activity, margin debt, market breadth, and initial public offering data.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it when assessing bubble risk, profit-taking, new investments, short-selling decisions, or risk in existing positions.
Why use it?
It replaces impressions and market excitement with a structured scoring process. It also includes checks intended to reduce confirmation bias, which is the tendency to favor evidence that supports an existing view.

Skill for Claude Code

Written for Claude Code: installed under .claude/.

not rated 2.8krepo +32 today A scan Socket: passSnyk: warnSkillSpector: pass 95 tokens original MIT

Good fit Use it when assessing bubble risk, profit-taking, new investments, short-selling decisions, or risk in existing positions.

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Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/tradermonty/claude-trading-skills/us-market-bubble-detector
About the project

Claude Trading Skills is a collection of Claude Code workflows for individual investors who want structured market analysis, charting, economic-calendar review, screening, trade planning, journaling, and risk management. It is designed for people using long-term investing, ETFs, dividend stocks, and disciplined swing trading, and the catalogue entries package these workflows as skills, agents, commands, settings, and instructions.

tradermonty/claude-trading-skills · 2,813 stars · on GitHub · tradermonty.github.io

Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add tradermonty/claude-trading-skills --skill us-market-bubble-detector
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/tradermonty/claude-trading-skills

Made for: Claude Code.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for us-market-bubble-detector

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/tradermonty/claude-trading-skills/us-market-bubble-detector/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/tradermonty/claude-trading-skills/us-market-bubble-detector)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/tradermonty/claude-trading-skills/us-market-bubble-detector"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/tradermonty/claude-trading-skills/us-market-bubble-detector/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for us-market-bubble-detector

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/tradermonty/claude-trading-skills/us-market-bubble-detector"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/tradermonty/claude-trading-skills/us-market-bubble-detector.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 95 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 4,909 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe. Third-party audits
  • Socket pass 18 Mar 2026
  • Snyk warn 21 Feb 2026
  • NVIDIA SkillSpector pass 7 Sept 2026
How audits are shown
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00095 $0.04909
Opus 5 $0.00048 $0.02455
Sonnet 5 $0.00019 $0.00982
Haiku 4.5 $0.00010 $0.00491

Measured 13d ago against content hash 920d37cf2afa, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-12, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

us-market-bubble-detector scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 13d ago.

The scan reads SKILL.md. This mod also ships 1 executable file (scripts/bubble_scorer.py), listed below but not scanned — reading those needs a real analyzer, not pattern matching.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

Origin

Copies of this mod

2 near-identical copies found in the catalogue:

examples/weekly-trade-strategy/.claude/skills/us-market-bubble-detector/SKILL.md · 546 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 546 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

US Market Bubble Detection Skill (Revised v2.1)

Key Revisions in v2.1

Critical Changes from v2.0:

  1. Mandatory Quantitative Data Collection - Use measured values, not impressions or speculation
  2. Clear Threshold Settings - Specific numerical criteria for each indicator
  3. Two-Phase Evaluation Process - Quantitative evaluation → Qualitative adjustment (strict order)
  4. Stricter Qualitative Criteria - Max +3 points (reduced from +5), requires measurable evidence
  5. Confirmation Bias Prevention - Explicit checklist to avoid over-scoring
  6. Granular Risk Phases - Added "Elevated Risk" phase (8-9 points) for nuanced risk management

When to Use This Skill

Use this skill when:

English:

  • User asks "Is the market in a bubble?" or "Are we in a bubble?"
  • User seeks advice on profit-taking, new entry timing, or short-selling decisions
  • User reports social phenomena (non-investors entering, media frenzy, IPO flood)
  • User mentions narratives like "this time is different" or "revolutionary technology" becoming mainstream
  • User consults about risk management for existing positions

Japanese:

  • ユーザーが「今の相場はバブルか?」と尋ねる
  • 投資の利確・新規参入・空売りのタイミング判断を求める
  • 社会現象(非投資家の参入、メディア過熱、IPO氾濫)を観察し懸念を表明
  • 「今回は違う」「革命的技術」などの物語が主流化している状況を報告
  • 保有ポジションのリスク管理方法を相談

Evaluation Process (Strict Order)

Phase 1: Mandatory Quantitative Data Collection

CRITICAL: Always collect the following data before starting evaluation

1.1 Market Structure Data (Highest Priority)
□ Put/Call Ratio (CBOE Equity P/C)
  - Source: CBOE DataShop or web_search "CBOE put call ratio"
  - Collect: 5-day moving average

□ VIX (Fear Index)
  - Source: Yahoo Finance ^VIX or web_search "VIX current"
  - Collect: Current value + percentile over past 3 months

□ Volatility Indicators
  - 21-day realized volatility
  - Historical position of VIX (determine if in bottom 10th percentile)
1.2 Leverage & Positioning Data
□ FINRA Margin Debt Balance
  - Source: web_search "FINRA margin debt latest"
  - Collect: Latest month + Year-over-Year % change

□ Breadth (Market Participation)
  - % of S&P 500 stocks above 50-day MA
  - Source: web_search "S&P 500 breadth 50 day moving average"

Read the full file on GitHub · 546 lines

Files

What ships with it

7 files beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 13d ago First seen · 546 lines · 95 tokens per session scan A 920d37cf2afa

Subscribe to this mod's changes

us-market-bubble-detector is a skill published in the GitHub repository tradermonty/claude-trading-skills (2,813 stars, last pushed today), licensed MIT. It adds 95 tokens to every session and 4,909 once invoked, about $0.0005 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.

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