effectuation

A planning framework for uncertain situations where the goal, market, or likely outcomes are unclear. It starts with the resources and relationships already available instead of relying on forecasts.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it before product-market fit, after a pivot, or when entering a new market without enough data to estimate probabilities.
Why use it?
It helps guide exploration when there is little reliable history or when every direction seems plausible.

Skill for Claude CodeCodex

Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/voxtechnologies/anty-framework/effectuation
Any agent
npx skills add VoxTechnologies/anty-framework --skill effectuation
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/VoxTechnologies/anty-framework

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Per session 51 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 1,057 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. Scan, not verified.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5 $0.00051 $0.01057
Opus 5 $0.00026 $0.00528
Sonnet 5 $0.00010 $0.00211
Haiku 4.5 $0.00005 $0.00106

Measured 2d ago against content hash 14bdaaa2ce96, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-08-30, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

effectuation scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 2d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

Origin

Copies of this mod

1 near-identical copy found in the catalogue:

skills/effectuation/SKILL.md · 106 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 106 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Effectuation (Exploration Mode)

When to Apply

  • Pre-PMF stage with unclear product direction
  • Post-pivot with new market entry
  • Goals are ambiguous or evolving
  • No historical data to estimate probabilities (Knightian uncertainty)
  • Every direction looks equally plausible

Core Framework

Three-Condition Test (Auto-Evaluate)

Condition Causation (YES) Effectuation (NO)
Goal clarity Founder can state clear, measurable goal Goal is ambiguous or evolving
Environmental legibility Clear which market signals matter Every direction looks equally plausible
Historical data Data exists to estimate probabilities No precedent, Knightian uncertainty

Mode selection:

  • All 3 YES: Causation mode (Strategy Kernel, KPI Tree, Critical Chain)
  • Any 1+ NO: Effectuation mode (this framework)
  • Mixed: Hybrid mode (Causation structure with Effectuation flexibility)

Effectuation Cycle

In effectuation mode, DISABLE: KPI tree decomposition, buffer management, Critical Chain. Run this repeating expansion cycle instead:

1. Bird-in-Hand Audit "What resources do you have RIGHT NOW?"

  • Skills (founder + team)
  • Network (who do you know?)
  • Capital (how much can you invest?)
  • Technology (what have you already built?)
  • Domain knowledge (what do you uniquely understand?)

2. Affordable Loss Ceiling (4 Dimensions)

Every experiment is checked against ALL four dimensions:

Dimension Question Threshold
Financial "How much capital can you invest and survive if it goes to zero?" Set dollar amount
Time "How many months can you devote before you need income?" Set month limit
Reputation "Would failure here damage your ability to raise funds or get hired?" low/medium/high
Psychological "Can you handle this failing and try again?" yes/no

Track CUMULATIVE commitments across all active experiments. Individual experiments may each be small, but together they can exceed limits.

Read the full file on GitHub · 106 lines

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 2d ago First seen · 106 lines · 51 tokens per session scan A 14bdaaa2ce96

Subscribe to this mod's changes

effectuation is a skill published in the GitHub repository VoxTechnologies/anty-framework (6 stars, last pushed 4mo ago), licensed MIT. It adds 51 tokens to every session and 1,057 once invoked, about $0.0003 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-31.

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