root-cause

Root Cause Analysis (WHERE -> WHY)

When to Apply

• Buffer enters YELLOW or RED zone
• Actions executed but metrics not moving (Layer 1 OK, Layer 2 stalling)
• Significant KPI decline detected
• Review engine Question 5 triggers (was root-cause analysis correct?)
• Any time "why isn't this working?" is asked

Core Framework

Stage 1 — WHERE (Locate the Problem)

MECE decomposition of the underperforming Goal into Drivers, identifying which specific Driver(s) are stalling.

Goal buffer: YELLOW (45% consumed, 34% progress)

WHERE analysis (MECE decomposition by Driver):
  Social growth:      45% of target  <- GAP HERE
  Referral program:   20% of target  <- GAP HERE
  SEO content:        60% of target  (on track)
  LP A/B testing:     30% of target  (too early)
  Nurture emails:     10% of target  (not started)

Identified: Social growth and Referral are primary gaps.

WHERE must complete before WHY begins. This is strict and sequential.

Stage 2 — WHY (Causal Structure Diagram)

Starting from the WHERE-identified gap, build a causal structure by asking "Why?" iteratively, one layer at a time. Each node carries a verification status.

Social growth stalling (WHERE-identified gap)
  |
  +-- Post engagement declining [VERIFIED - analytics data]
  |     +-- Content not resonating with ICP [HYPOTHESIS]
  |     |     +-- Tone mismatch [HYPOTHESIS]
  |     |     +-- Topic mismatch (features vs pain-points) [VERIFIED]
  |     +-- Posting at wrong times [DISPROVEN - analytics show optimal]
  |
  +-- Follower growth rate declining [VERIFIED]
        +-- No engagement with other accounts [VERIFIED] <- ACTION TARGET
        +-- Algorithm change [UNCONTROLLABLE]

Causal Node Types

Type	Meaning	Visual
verified	Confirmed by data/facts	Solid line
hypothesis	Not yet verified	Dashed line
disproven	Checked and ruled out	Marked X
uncontrollable	Outside our control	Marked X
action_target	Selected for countermeasure	Highlighted