cheat-predict

A workflow that records an unchangeable prediction about how a piece of content may perform before later results are known. Blind prediction means judging the draft without looking at those later results.

In plain words
What is it for?
It scores a draft across several dimensions, estimates outcome probabilities, records alternative scenarios and assumptions, supports user review, and appends a new version when a prediction already exists.
Why use it?
It creates a dated record for comparing expectations with reality and prevents later knowledge from rewriting the original judgment.

Skill for Claude CodeCodex

Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/xbuilderlab/cheat-on-content/cheat-predict
Any agent
npx skills add XBuilderLAB/cheat-on-content --skill cheat-predict
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/XBuilderLAB/cheat-on-content

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Per session 0 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 7,651 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. Scan, not verified.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5 $0.00000 $0.07651
Opus 5 $0.00000 $0.03825
Sonnet 5 $0.00000 $0.01530
Haiku 4.5 $0.00000 $0.00765

Measured 2d ago against content hash 9e1096e853bb, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-08-30, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

cheat-predict scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 2d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

Origin

Copies of this mod

1 near-identical copy found in the catalogue:

skills/cheat-predict/SKILL.md · 453 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 453 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

/cheat-predict — AI 主导的盲预测 + 用户 review

这个工具是"作弊器"——AI 帮你做判断。所以 cheat-predict 的核心是:

  • Claude 自己读稿子 + 打 7 维分 + 给 bucket + 概率分布 + 反事实场景
  • 用户 review 后回 "ok" 接受,或指出哪个维度 / 哪个判断不对
  • 默认走快路径:用户直接 ok → 落盘
  • 慢路径:用户挑刺某个维度 → Claude 改 → 再 review → 直至确认

不是用户从 7 维分到概率分布全部自己写,那 Claude 只剩"格式化器"——失去工具的核心价值。

严格遵守 shared-references/blind-prediction-protocol.md——见过任何后续数据就不能写预测,只能记 reconstructed。 完整组件清单见 shared-references/prediction-anatomy.md。 Confidence 派生表见 shared-references/state-management.md

Overview

[用户:启动预测 scripts/<id>.md]
  ↓
[Phase 0: blind check 自检]                    ← 触犯就拒绝
  ↓
[Phase 0.7: 模式判定 — v1 (新建) 还是 v2 (append)]
  ↓
[Phase 1: 读 script + rubric + state + 派生 confidence]
  ↓
[Phase 2: **委派 cheat-score-blind sub-agent**(Task tool)拿 9 维盲打 + per-dim confidence]
  ↓
[Phase 2.5: 主 Claude 对 blind 输出做 review — 若任意维度 |delta| ≥ 2 vs 主估,弹给用户裁定]
  ↓
[Phase 3: **Claude 自己**找锚点对比]
  ↓
[Phase 4: **Claude 自己**给 bucket + 概率分布 + 中枢]   ← confidence 低时分布更平
  ↓
[Phase 5: **Claude 自己**写反事实场景 + 关键校准假设]
  ↓
[Phase 5.5: **用户 review**——展示完整草拟版,等用户 "ok" 或挑刺]
  ↓
   ├─ "ok" → Phase 6 落盘
   └─ "X 维度应该 Y 不是 Z" → Claude 改 → 再 review → 循环
  ↓
[Phase 6: 落盘 — v1 写新文件 / v2 append 到现有文件 ## 复盘 之前]
  ↓
[Phase 7: 更新 state.in_progress_session]

Constants

  • SCRIPTS_DIR = scripts/ — 草稿源目录
  • PREDICTION_DIR = predictions/ — 落盘目录
  • BLIND_CHECK = strict — strict(默认)/ lenient(仅警告,不推荐)—— 跟 blind-prediction-protocol.md "见过数据"边界相关
  • BLIND_SCORING = on(默认)/ off —— 是否走 cheat-score-blind sub-agent。off 等价于 --skip-blind flag,标 last_prediction_self_scored: true 给 cheat-status 警告
  • DISAGREEMENT_THRESHOLD = 2 —— blind 与主 Claude 自评的单维度差异 |Δ| ≥ 此值 → Phase 2.5 弹用户裁定
  • BUCKET_PRESET = auto — 自动派生:有 baseline_plays → 按 baseline × {0.3 / 1 / 3 / 10 / 30};无 baseline → 平台通用默认
  • MIN_ANCHORS = 2 — 锚点对比期望 2 个;不够时显式标"锚点 N/A"段(不删段,不省略)

Read the full file on GitHub · 453 lines

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 2d ago First seen · 453 lines · 0 tokens per session scan A 9e1096e853bb

Subscribe to this mod's changes

cheat-predict is a skill published in the GitHub repository XBuilderLAB/cheat-on-content (6,715 stars, last pushed yesterday), licensed MIT. It costs nothing until one of its globs matches a file; then it loads 7,651 tokens. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.

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