returns-analysis

Returns Analysis

description: Build quick IRR/MOIC sensitivity tables for PE deal evaluation. Models returns across entry multiple, leverage, exit multiple, growth, and hold period scenarios. Use when sizing up a deal, stress-testing assumptions, or preparing IC returns exhibits. Triggers on "returns analysis", "IRR sensitivity", "MOIC table", "what's the return at", "model the returns", or "back of the envelope".

Workflow

Step 1: Gather Deal Inputs

Ask for (or extract from prior analysis):

Entry:

• Entry EBITDA (LTM or NTM)
• Entry multiple (EV / EBITDA)
• Enterprise value
• Net debt at close
• Equity check size
• Transaction fees & expenses

Financing:

• Senior debt (x EBITDA, rate, amortization)
• Subordinated debt / mezzanine (if any)
• Total leverage at entry (x EBITDA)
• Equity contribution

Operating Assumptions:

• Revenue growth rate (annual)
• EBITDA margin trajectory
• Capex as % of revenue
• Working capital changes
• Debt paydown schedule

Exit:

• Hold period (years)
• Exit multiple (EV / EBITDA)
• Exit EBITDA (calculated from growth assumptions)

Step 2: Base Case Returns

Calculate:

Metric	Value
Entry EV
Equity invested
Exit EBITDA
Exit EV
Net debt at exit
Exit equity value
MOIC
IRR
Cash-on-cash

Show the returns waterfall:

• EBITDA growth contribution
• Multiple expansion/contraction contribution
• Debt paydown contribution
• Fee/expense drag

Step 3: Sensitivity Tables

Build 2-way sensitivity matrices:

Entry Multiple vs. Exit Multiple

	Exit 6x	Exit 7x	Exit 8x	Exit 9x	Exit 10x
Entry 7x
Entry 8x
Entry 9x
Entry 10x

EBITDA Growth vs. Exit Multiple (at fixed entry)

Leverage vs. Exit Multiple (at fixed entry and growth)

Hold Period vs. Exit Multiple

Show both IRR and MOIC in each cell (IRR / MOIC format).