define-hypothesis

define-hypothesis is a skill for Claude Code, Codex from yuusakuri/agent-skills. It costs 61 tokens per session (813 once invoked), scanned A, a copy of define-hypothesis, MIT.

A clear, testable prediction about how a change might affect user behaviour or business results. It includes measures and a way to check whether the prediction is true.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to state assumptions before an experiment, prepare an A/B test, resolve disagreements about expected results, or validate a new direction.
Why use it?
It turns untested beliefs into claims a team can validate before spending significant engineering time. It also helps people agree on what success should look like.

Skill for Claude CodeCodex

Written for no agent in particular: nothing here depends on one.

Good fit Use it to state assumptions before an experiment, prepare an A/B test, resolve disagreements about expected results, or validate a new direction.

Compare 6 skills from other repositories ↓
Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/yuusakuri/agent-skills/define-hypothesis
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add yuusakuri/agent-skills --skill define-hypothesis
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/yuusakuri/agent-skills

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for define-hypothesis

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/yuusakuri/agent-skills/define-hypothesis/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/yuusakuri/agent-skills/define-hypothesis)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/yuusakuri/agent-skills/define-hypothesis"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/yuusakuri/agent-skills/define-hypothesis/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for define-hypothesis

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/yuusakuri/agent-skills/define-hypothesis"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/yuusakuri/agent-skills/define-hypothesis.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 61 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 813 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.
Origin 98% copy Near-identical to another mod in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00061 $0.00813
Opus 5 $0.00030 $0.00407
Sonnet 5 $0.00012 $0.00163
Haiku 4.5 $0.00006 $0.00081

Measured 9d ago against content hash 92049620050b, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-09, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

define-hypothesis scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 9d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

Origin

This is a copy

98% identical to define-hypothesis — 12 lines differ, which has more behind it and is treated as the original. This page carries a canonical link to it rather than competing with it.

skills/define-hypothesis/SKILL.md · 73 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 73 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Hypothesis

A hypothesis is a testable prediction about how a change will affect user behavior or business outcomes. It transforms assumptions into explicit statements that can be validated or invalidated through experimentation. Well-formed hypotheses prevent teams from building features based on untested beliefs and create shared understanding of what success looks like.

When to Use

  • After problem framing, before committing to a solution
  • When designing experiments or A/B tests
  • When team members have differing assumptions about user behavior
  • Before investing significant engineering resources in a feature
  • When pivoting direction and need to validate the new approach

When NOT to Use

  • You are ready to design the actual A/B test (variants, sample size, duration) -> use measure-experiment-design; this skill frames what to test, not how
  • The problem itself is still unframed -> use define-problem-statement first
  • You want to organize many assumptions and ideas into a discovery structure -> use define-opportunity-tree
  • The team needs the full business-model picture, not one testable claim -> use lean-canvas

Instructions

When asked to create a hypothesis, follow these steps:

  1. State the Belief Articulate what you believe will happen. Use the structured format: "We believe that [action/change] for [target user] will [expected outcome]." Be specific about the intervention - vague hypotheses can't be tested.

  2. Identify the Target User Define who this hypothesis applies to. A hypothesis about "users" is too broad. Specify the segment: new users in their first week, power users with 10+ sessions, churned users returning, etc.

  3. Define the Expected Outcome What behavior change or result do you expect? Frame it in terms of user actions (complete onboarding, make a purchase, return within 7 days) rather than internal metrics when possible.

Read the full file on GitHub · 73 lines

Files

What ships with it

4 files beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 9d ago First seen · 73 lines · 61 tokens per session scan A 92049620050b

Subscribe to this mod's changes

define-hypothesis is a skill published in the GitHub repository yuusakuri/agent-skills (2 stars, last pushed 2d ago), licensed MIT. It adds 61 tokens to every session and 813 once invoked, about $0.0003 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. It is 98% identical to define-hypothesis, differing in 12 lines, and is treated as a copy.

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