backtest-expert

A guide to testing rule-based trading strategies against historical market data before using them live.

In plain words
What is it for?
Developing, validating, and stress-testing systematic trading strategies, including parameter sensitivity, slippage, execution costs, and market-regime effects.
Why use it?
It helps reveal curve-fitting, look-ahead bias, survivorship bias, unrealistic costs, and other reasons a backtest may look better than real trading.

Skill for Claude CodeCodex

Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/zai-org/synapse/backtest-expert
Any agent
npx skills add zai-org/Synapse --skill backtest-expert
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/zai-org/Synapse

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Per session 81 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 1,690 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. Scan, not verified.
Origin 91% copy Near-identical to another mod in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5 $0.00081 $0.01690
Opus 5 $0.00041 $0.00845
Sonnet 5 $0.00016 $0.00338
Haiku 4.5 $0.00008 $0.00169

Measured 2d ago against content hash 14a4592ceb80, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-08-30, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

backtest-expert scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 2d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

Origin

This is a copy

91% identical to backtest-expert — 42 lines differ, which has more behind it and is treated as the original. This page carries a canonical link to it rather than competing with it.

.setup/skills/clawhub/skills/backtest-expert/SKILL.md · 207 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 207 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Backtest Expert

Systematic approach to backtesting trading strategies based on professional methodology that prioritizes robustness over optimistic results.

Core Philosophy

Goal: Find strategies that "break the least", not strategies that "profit the most" on paper.

Principle: Add friction, stress test assumptions, and see what survives. If a strategy holds up under pessimistic conditions, it's more likely to work in live trading.

When to Use This Skill

Use this skill when:

  • Developing or validating systematic trading strategies
  • Evaluating whether a trading idea is robust enough for live implementation
  • Troubleshooting why a backtest might be misleading
  • Learning proper backtesting methodology
  • Avoiding common pitfalls (curve-fitting, look-ahead bias, survivorship bias)
  • Assessing parameter sensitivity and regime dependence
  • Setting realistic expectations for slippage and execution costs

Backtesting Workflow

1. State the Hypothesis

Define the edge in one sentence.

Example: "Stocks that gap up >3% on earnings and pull back to previous day's close within first hour provide mean-reversion opportunity."

If you can't articulate the edge clearly, don't proceed to testing.

2. Codify Rules with Zero Discretion

Define with complete specificity:

  • Entry: Exact conditions, timing, price type
  • Exit: Stop loss, profit target, time-based exit
  • Position sizing: Fixed $$, % of portfolio, volatility-adjusted
  • Filters: Market cap, volume, sector, volatility conditions
  • Universe: What instruments are eligible

Critical: No subjective judgment allowed. Every decision must be rule-based and unambiguous.

3. Run Initial Backtest

Test over:

  • Minimum 5 years (preferably 10+)
  • Multiple market regimes (bull, bear, high/low volatility)
  • Realistic costs: Commissions + conservative slippage

Examine initial results for basic viability. If fundamentally broken, iterate on hypothesis.

4. Stress Test the Strategy

Read the full file on GitHub · 207 lines

Files

What ships with it

4 files beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 2d ago First seen · 207 lines · 81 tokens per session scan A 14a4592ceb80

Subscribe to this mod's changes

backtest-expert is a skill published in the GitHub repository zai-org/Synapse (438 stars, last pushed 1mo ago), licensed Apache-2.0. It adds 81 tokens to every session and 1,690 once invoked, about $0.0004 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. It is 91% identical to backtest-expert, differing in 42 lines, and is treated as a copy.

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