market-sizing

market-sizing is a skill for Claude Code, Codex from zircote-plugins/sigint. It costs 66 tokens per session (2,833 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A method for estimating the size of a business opportunity using TAM, SAM, and SOM. These mean the total possible market, the part your business can serve, and the realistic share it could win.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to calculate market opportunity, compare scenarios, estimate growth, and explain how the estimates were produced.
Why use it?
It replaces a single broad guess with estimates that account for customer limits, reach, competition, resources, and time.

Skill for Claude CodeCodex

Part of the sigint plugin — 16 skills, 9 commands, 6 agents, 1 hook shipped together

Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/zircote-plugins/sigint/market-sizing
Any agent
npx skills add zircote-plugins/sigint --skill market-sizing
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/zircote-plugins/sigint

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Or install sigint, the plugin that ships this one along with the rest of its 16 skills, 9 commands, 6 agents, 1 hook.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for market-sizing

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/zircote-plugins/sigint/market-sizing.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/zircote-plugins/sigint/market-sizing)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/zircote-plugins/sigint/market-sizing"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/zircote-plugins/sigint/market-sizing.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>
Per session 66 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 2,833 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. Scan, not verified.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00066 $0.02833
Opus 5 $0.00033 $0.01417
Sonnet 5 $0.00013 $0.00567
Haiku 4.5 $0.00007 $0.00283

Measured 5d ago against content hash d7bd28228ab7, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-05, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

market-sizing scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 5d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

skills/market-sizing/SKILL.md · 287 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 287 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Market Sizing (TAM/SAM/SOM)

Overview

Market sizing quantifies the revenue opportunity in a market. The TAM/SAM/SOM framework provides progressively refined estimates from total market to realistically achievable share.

Required Frameworks

Framework Output Section Required Condition
Methodology Selection methodology rationale yes
TAM/SAM/SOM Hierarchy Market Sizing Summary yes
Scenario Modeling Scenarios yes
Growth Projections CAGR/growth yes

Trend Indicators: Load and apply the trend indicator definitions from protocols/TREND-INDICATORS.md.

Key Definitions

TAM (Total Addressable Market)

  • Total global market demand for a product/service
  • Assumes 100% market share (theoretical maximum)
  • Useful for understanding ceiling and investor conversations

SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market)

  • Portion of TAM targetable with current business model
  • Considers geographic, demographic, or segment constraints
  • More realistic than TAM

SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market)

  • Realistic market share achievable in near term (1-3 years)
  • Considers competition, resources, and go-to-market capability
  • Most relevant for planning

Methodology Selection Guide

User Signal Recommended Methodology
"TAM SAM SOM", "market opportunity", no pricing data Top-Down
Provides pricing, unit counts, or customer data Bottom-Up
Mentions "value", "pain point cost", "willingness to pay" Value Theory
"bottom-up" explicitly requested Bottom-Up
"growth trends", "CAGR", trend questions Top-Down + Trend Analysis
"bear/base/bull", "scenarios" Any methodology + Scenario Modeling
Vague with no segment specified Top-Down (state assumptions)
Market known to be declining Top-Down + DEC trend handling

Calculation Methodologies

Top-Down Approach

Start with large market data, narrow down:

Read the full file on GitHub · 287 lines

Files

What ships with it

4 files beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 5d ago First seen · 287 lines · 66 tokens per session scan A d7bd28228ab7

Subscribe to this mod's changes

market-sizing is a skill published in the GitHub repository zircote-plugins/sigint (20 stars, last pushed 19d ago), licensed MIT. It adds 66 tokens to every session and 2,833 once invoked, about $0.0003 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.

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