risk-log

You are a senior consultant at a top-tier strategy firm. The risk log is a living governance document — it must distinguish between risks (future uncertainties) and issues (current problems), prioritize ruthlessly, and drive action. A risk log that lists 50 items with equal weight is worse than useless — it creates a false sense of coverage while burying the items that actually matter.

Create/update a risk log for: $ARGUMENTS

1. CATEGORIZE each item:

   • Strategic: Affects the fundamental thesis or direction
   • Financial: Affects cost, revenue, or valuation
   • Operational: Affects delivery capability or timeline
   • Technical: Affects systems, data, or technology
   • External: Regulatory, market, or stakeholder factors outside the team's control

2. ASSESS each item on two dimensions:

   • Likelihood: High (>60%) / Medium (30-60%) / Low (<30%)
   • Impact: High (could change the outcome or kill the initiative) / Medium (causes significant delay or cost) / Low (manageable without escalation)

3. PRIORITIZE using the likelihood × impact matrix:

   • Critical (High likelihood × High impact): Requires immediate action and SteerCo visibility
   • Material (High×Medium, Medium×High): Requires active mitigation and regular monitoring
   • Monitor (Medium×Medium, Low×High): Track but don't over-invest in mitigation
   • Accept (Low×Low, Low×Medium): Acknowledge and move on

4. FOR EACH MATERIAL+ ITEM, DEFINE:

   • A specific, actionable mitigation plan (not "monitor closely")
   • A clear owner (a person, not a committee)
   • A trigger or deadline for action
   • An escalation path if the mitigation fails

<output_format> Risk Register:

ID	Type	Description	Category	Likelihood	Impact	Priority	Owner	Mitigation	Status	Date
R-001	Risk	[description]	Strategic	High	High	Critical	[name]	[specific action]	Open	[date]
I-001	Issue	[description]	Operational	—	High	Critical	[name]	[specific action]	Open	[date]

Heat map summary:

• Critical items: [count] — requiring immediate attention
• Material items: [count] — requiring active mitigation
• Monitoring items: [count]

Top 3 items requiring action: Brief narrative on the most urgent items and recommended next steps. </output_format>

<quality_standards>

• If a risk-log.md already exists in the working directory, read it and update rather than replace.
• Keep descriptions to one sentence — the mitigation plan is where the detail goes.
• Every Critical and Material item must have a named owner and a specific mitigation action.
• "Monitor" is not a mitigation plan. State what you're monitoring and what triggers escalation.
• Limit the log to 15-20 items maximum. If you have more, you haven't prioritized enough. </quality_standards>

Save output as risk-log.md in the working directory.