Getting it into your agent
One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.
npx skills add ace3000chao/book2startup --skill 004-pivot-decisiongit clone --depth 1 https://github.com/ace3000chao/book2startupWrote this? Show the measurements
A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.
[](https://agentmods.dev/skills/ace3000chao/book2startup/004-pivot-decision)<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/ace3000chao/book2startup/004-pivot-decision"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/ace3000chao/book2startup/004-pivot-decision/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/ace3000chao/book2startup/004-pivot-decision"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/ace3000chao/book2startup/004-pivot-decision.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>What it costs to keep this loaded
Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.
| Model | Per session | Once invoked |
|---|---|---|
| Fable 5.1 | $0.00054 | $0.01471 |
| Opus 5 | $0.00027 | $0.00736 |
| Sonnet 5 | $0.00011 | $0.00294 |
| Haiku 4.5 | $0.00005 | $0.00147 |
Grade A, and why
pivot-or-persist scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 9d ago.
A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.
Nothing flagged
None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.
How it starts
The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 105 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.
Skill: 转型决策树
Metadata
- ID: leanstartup-004
- 类型: framework
- 来源: 《精益创业》第八章
- 验证状态: ✅ 三重验证通过（V1: 8-10章完整论证, V2: 创业存亡决策, V3: 反人性）
R — Reading（原文引用）
"转型是一种有条理的方向性改变，用来测试新的产品、商业模式和增长引擎的基础假设。它是精益创业的核心所在，让采用精益创业的企业在错误面前百折不挠。"
"企业如果不能根据市场反馈转投新的方向，就会陷于进退两难的尴尬境地，既无法增长又不至于垮台，虚耗员工和其他利益相关群体的资源和支持信任，却只能原地踏步。"
I — Interpretation（方法论骨架）
转型的核心洞察：坚持错误的方向是最大的浪费，不是美德。
作者指出了10种转型类型，不是"换一个方向"那么简单：
| 类型 | 解释 |
|---|---|
| 放大转型 | 某个功能变成整个产品 |
| 缩小转型 | 整个产品变成某个功能 |
| 客户细分转型 | 产品没变，但目标顾客变了 |
| 客户需求转型 | 解决的是顾客另一个问题 |
| 平台转型 | 应用↔平台的转换 |
| 商业架构转型 | 高利润低量↔低利润高量 |
| 价值获取转型 | 收入模式改变 |
| 增长引擎转型 | 黏着/病毒/付费之间切换 |
| 渠道转型 | 直销↔渠道等 |
| 技术转型 | 用不同技术解决同样问题 |
转型的本质是"保留有效部分，改变无效部分"，不是全盘否定。
A1 — Past Application（书中案例）
Wealthfront从游戏到资管平台：原来假设"游戏玩家会转化为付费用户"，数据打脸（付费转化几乎为零）。通过顾客访谈发现新方向：专业理财经理才是真正的目标客户。最终从游戏公司转型为资产管理平台，管理资产达1.8亿美元。
IMVU的转型失败教训：早期在早期用户中成功，但迟迟不愿面对主流市场失败的事实。直到增长彻底停滞才被迫转型，损失了2年时间。"别和成功过不去"是另一个陷阱。
Votizen选民网：从完整的社交网络缩小为"选民联系工具"（缩小转型），最终被收购。
A2 — Future Trigger（何时调用）
当你听到以下问题时，就应该调用这个Skill：
- "我们已经尝试了很多次优化，但核心指标还是没有改善，怎么办？"
- "竞争对手用更低成本获得了更快增长，我们是不是做错了什么？"
- "团队士气低落，因为感觉在推动一块巨石上山"
- "投资人的钱快用完了，但产品还没有明显进展"
- "我们最初的目标用户不接受，但发现另一群用户很喜欢，该怎么选择？"
E — Execution（可执行步骤）
步骤1：确认是否需要"转型还是坚持"会议
触发信号（出现任意一个）：
- 某个核心指标连续3个月没有改善（如激活率、留存率）
- 产品实验效率降低（每次实验的结果越来越不确定）
- 竞争对手以更低成本获得更快增长
- 团队开始私下寻找"后路"
如果没有触发信号，继续当前方向。
步骤2：准备"证据包"（会议前）
产品团队准备：
- 过去3-6个月的同期群数据（不是总数，是同期群）
- 与预期相比的表现差异
- 已尝试的实验及结果
业务团队准备：
- 与顾客/潜在顾客的访谈记录
- 顾客真正在说什么（vs 他们愿意付费的差距）
步骤3：评估转型类型
根据证据，判断属于哪种转型：
- 产品方向问题 → 客户细分/客户需求/放大/缩小转型
- 商业模式问题 → 价值获取/商业架构/增长引擎转型
- 技术问题 → 技术转型
- 渠道问题 → 渠道转型
步骤4：问关键问题
"如果我们今天从零开始，我们会做同样的事情吗？"
如果不是，为什么不立刻改变？
步骤5：执行转型
- 转型是一个战略假设，需要新的MVP来验证
- 保留有效的部分，改变无效的部分
- 设定新的基准线和认知阶段性目标
B — Boundary（何时不适用）
| 不适用场景 | 原因 |
|---|---|
| 还没有真正验证核心假设 | 这时候的"转型"只是逃避，不是战略性调整 |
| 资金充足且核心指标在缓慢改善 | 给自己一个更明确的期限 |
| 外部环境短期冲击（非产品问题） | 区分"市场噪音"和"产品方向错误" |
作者盲点提醒：转型是痛苦的，因为它要求承认"我之前的判断是错的"。很多创业者不是因为不够坚持而失败，而是因为过度坚持而错过了转型窗口。学会区分"暂时困难"和"方向性错误"是关键。
What ships with it
1 file beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.
What this file has done since we first saw it
Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.
- 9d ago First seen · 105 lines · 54 tokens per session scan A 848d9f65654f
pivot-or-persist is a skill published in the GitHub repository ace3000chao/book2startup (80 stars, last pushed 4mo ago), licensed MIT. It adds 54 tokens to every session and 1,471 once invoked, about $0.0003 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-09-03.
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