What is huo-yue-zai-yuan?

A decision-making method for judging when a prepared business or project should move from waiting and building capacity to taking action. It weighs readiness, timing, and a clear fallback if the move fails.

Use it for major launches, new markets, strategic moves, or opportunities where the main question is whether to act now or wait.

It helps separate useful preparation from endless delay and reduces the risk of acting before the team or conditions are ready.

huo-yue-zai-yuan — Skill for Claude Code and Codex by ace3000chao

Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent

npx skills add ace3000chao/book2startup --skill huo-yue-zai-yuan

Clone the repo

git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/ace3000chao/book2startup

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

README.md

[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/ace3000chao/book2startup/huo-yue-zai-yuan/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/ace3000chao/book2startup/huo-yue-zai-yuan)

Your own site

<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/ace3000chao/book2startup/huo-yue-zai-yuan"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/ace3000chao/book2startup/huo-yue-zai-yuan/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

Your own site · 80×15

<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/ace3000chao/book2startup/huo-yue-zai-yuan"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/ace3000chao/book2startup/huo-yue-zai-yuan.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>

Per session 200 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.

When invoked 2,110 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.

Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.

Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.

Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

Model	Per session	Once invoked
Fable 5.1	$0.00200	$0.02110
Opus 5	$0.00100	$0.01055
Sonnet 5	$0.00040	$0.00422
Haiku 4.5	$0.00020	$0.00211

Measured 13d ago against content hash 2feaadb14488, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-12, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

huo-yue-zai-yuan scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 13d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

易经skills/huo-yue-zai-yuan/SKILL.md · 132 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 132 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

或跃在渊，进无咎

R — 原文 (Reading)

"或跃在渊，无咎。" "知至至之，可与言几也。知终终之，可与存义也。" — 《易经》乾卦·九四

I — 方法论骨架 (Interpretation)

"或跃在渊"描述的是龙在深渊中蓄势、伺机跃起的状态——不是盲目冲撞，也不是永远潜伏，而是在准确判断时机后的一跃。

"知至至之，可与言几"：知道目标在哪里、知道何时到达那个点，才能谈论时机。这句话道出了本skill的核心——对"临界点"的感知和把握。

应用到创业实践中：

渊的理解：深渊不是失败，而是蓄势。团队能力、资源积累、市场条件都在深渊中等待
跃的准备：起跳前需要确认三件事——内在能力是否到位、外在时机是否成熟、失败退路是否清晰
进无咎：只要是经过审慎判断后的跃，失败了也不会有咎——因为咎不在行动本身，而在于盲目或犹豫
知至至之：知道你要到达的位置，知道何时到达那里，这是能不能谈"时机"的前提

本质是在"蓄势"与"起跳"之间找到精准节奏，不早不晚，恰到好处。

A1 — 书中的应用 (Past Application)

案例1: 文王克崇

问题: 周文王面对商朝强权，在时机未成熟时如何在韬光养晦中等待，同时为最终伐纣做准备
方法论的使用: 文王被困羑里七年，在"渊"中潜心演易、积蓄力量、等待时机；他知道自己的"跃"要等到商朝内部彻底腐化和周族实力足够强大两个条件同时满足
结论: 文王以"在渊"的姿态完成力量积累，等到"跃"的窗口打开，一举奠定周朝根基
结果: 牧野之战时机成熟，武王完成文王未竟之业，周朝建立

案例2: 华为技术突破前的静默期

问题: 华为在通信设备领域从追赶者到领先者的过程中，如何判断"跃"的时机
方法论的使用: 任正非提出"不在非战略机会点上消耗战略竞争力量"，华为在多个技术路线上长期蓄势（渊），直到某个技术代际更替的窗口打开（跃）
结论: 华为的跳跃不是追赶期的冒进，而是在充分蓄势后的精准出击
结果: 华为在5G时代成为全球领导者，而非在2G/3G时代过度消耗

A2 — 触发场景 (Future Trigger) ★

用户会在什么情境下需要这个 skill?

创业者在机会面前犹豫——项目已准备就绪，但不确定"现在是否是时候"；或已多次推迟行动
团队面临重大战略选择：是继续深耕现有业务（渊），还是进入新市场/推出新产品（跃）
外部投资者、合伙人、员工都在催促行动，但创业者内心感到时机可能未到

语言信号

"这个机会很好，但我们还没准备好"
"再等等，等XXX就绪了"
"现在上还是半年后上？"
"大家都说可以动了，我总觉得还差点什么"
"如果失败了怎么办，但不进也不行"

与相邻 skill 的区分

与 ce01（亢龙有悔）的区别: ce01是"已经跃得太高、过于亢进而失败"；本skill是"如何判断该不该跃"，属于起跳前的决策框架；两者方向相反
与 p13（穷则变）的区别: p13强调"穷则必须变"，本skill强调"在渊蓄势才能跃"，不是被迫应变而是主动等待时机

E — 可执行步骤 (Execution)

盘点"渊"的深度——我们真的准备好了吗
- 完成标准: 列出"内在准备度"清单：核心能力（1-10分）、资源储备（1-10分）、团队状态（1-10分），总分≥21分进入下一步
- 判停条件: 若总分<18分，明确告知"渊还不够深，现在跳跃风险过高"
识别"跃"的窗口——时机真的到了吗
- 完成标准: 列出"外在时机"条件：市场窗口（打开/即将打开/关闭）、竞争对手动向（是否有空窗）、政策环境（有利/中性/不利），至少2项有利
- 判停条件: 若外在条件均不利，继续蓄势，不执行跳跃
确认退路——失败了怎么办
- 完成标准: 制定"最坏情况预案"：最坏结果是什么？这个结果是否可以承受？有没有保底线？
- 判停条件: 若最坏结果无法承受，暂停跳跃，重新评估规模或方式
执行跳跃——进无咎
- 完成标准: 确定"行动触发点"（具体的、可观察的信号），一旦触发立即执行，不犹豫
- 判停条件: 若触发后犹豫超过72小时，重新进入步骤1评估

B — 边界 (Boundary) ★

不要在以下情况使用此 skill

已经在坠落中——这属于ce01亢龙有悔的范畴，不是"在渊蓄势"而是"已经跃了并失败"，此时需要的是救险而不是判断时机
极小规模的试水（小额测试、新功能灰度发布）——这些不值得动用完整的时机判断框架，轻量决策即可
机会窗口极短（<72小时）——时间窗口太短时，分析框架反而耽误行动，此时凭直觉快速决策

Read the full file on GitHub · 132 lines

Files

What ships with it

1 file beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.

test-prompts.json 1022 B

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

13d ago First seen · 132 lines · 200 tokens per session scan A 2feaadb14488

Subscribe to this mod's changes

huo-yue-zai-yuan is a skill published in the GitHub repository ace3000chao/book2startup (80 stars, last pushed 4mo ago), licensed MIT. It adds 200 tokens to every session and 2,110 once invoked, about $0.0010 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.

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