Getting it into your agent
One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.
npx skills add agiprolabs/claude-trading-skills --skill prediction-market-strategygit clone --depth 1 https://github.com/agiprolabs/claude-trading-skillsWrote this? Show the measurements
A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.
[](https://agentmods.dev/skills/agiprolabs/claude-trading-skills/prediction-market-strategy)<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/agiprolabs/claude-trading-skills/prediction-market-strategy"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/agiprolabs/claude-trading-skills/prediction-market-strategy/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/agiprolabs/claude-trading-skills/prediction-market-strategy"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/agiprolabs/claude-trading-skills/prediction-market-strategy.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>- NVIDIA SkillSpector pass
What it costs to keep this loaded
Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.
| Model | Per session | Once invoked |
|---|---|---|
| Fable 5.1 | $0.00057 | $0.03182 |
| Opus 5 | $0.00028 | $0.01591 |
| Sonnet 5 | $0.00011 | $0.00636 |
| Haiku 4.5 | $0.00006 | $0.00318 |
Grade A, and why
prediction-market-strategy scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 12d ago.
A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.
Nothing flagged
None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.
How it starts
The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 200 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.
Prediction Market Strategy
Binary prediction markets price contracts as probabilities. This skill covers the strategy, sizing, and validation layer that applies across all venues and market types. API mechanics live in kalshi-api / polymarket-api; contract semantics and settlement live in kalshi-weather-markets / kalshi-crypto-index-markets. This is the strategy/sizing/validation layer that applies across all of them.
Core Thesis
Price = implied probability. A contract priced at $0.18 claims an 18% chance of resolving YES. Brackets in a series sum to just above $1.00 — the overround is the house margin (roughly 5–8% for weather markets on Kalshi).
Takers systematically lose; makers systematically win. Across 300k+ Kalshi contracts, the average pre-fee return is ≈ −20%, concentrated in takers (market-order users) and in longshot buyers. Makers (resting limit orders) earn positive returns. On Polymarket (588M+ trades), the top ~1% of accounts capture ~76.5% of profit, predominantly by resting limit orders. This is the foundational result.
Favorite–longshot bias is the durable mechanism. Cheap longshots are systematically overpriced: a $0.05 contract historically wins ~2%; sub-$0.10 contracts lose ~60% of stake to buyers. Favorites are fairly- to slightly-underpriced. The repeatable expression is selling the overpriced longshot tail, maker-side — resting NO bids on brackets priced ~$0.05–$0.20, diversified across many events to survive the rare hit. This is structural/behavioral, not a forecasting edge.
Forecast skill ≠ trading edge. A good weather or event forecast is largely redundant with the market price at decision time. Markets aggregate information efficiently enough that even a measurably better model produces near-zero net edge after fees unless it finds systematic mispricings (which are behavioral, not informational). The exception is official-label ML in lightly-traded markets — but that is bounded by fill-rate and capacity, not forecast accuracy.
What ships with it
5 files beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.
What this file has done since we first saw it
Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.
- 12d ago First seen · 200 lines · 57 tokens per session scan A 03cc9b80ac4a
prediction-market-strategy is a skill published in the GitHub repository agiprolabs/claude-trading-skills (356 stars, last pushed 9d ago), licensed MIT. It adds 57 tokens to every session and 3,182 once invoked, about $0.0003 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.
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