ag-referencia-anti-ciclo-preditivo

ag-referencia-anti-ciclo-preditivo is a skill for Claude Code from andregusman-raiz/a-gusman-claude. It costs 42 tokens per session (9,530 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A reference guide containing rules for avoiding misleading results and wasted work in predictive systems, such as forecasting, fraud detection, recommendations, and anomaly detection.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it before training or deploying a predictive model, or before claiming that a model has found a useful pattern.
Why use it?
It helps teams check whether a model’s apparent signal is real and whether the data, evaluation, and deployment process can support the conclusion.

Skill for Claude Code

Written for Claude Code: context: fork in frontmatter. Also seen: mentions CLAUDE.md; mentions Claude Code.

Good fit Use it before training or deploying a predictive model, or before claiming that a model has found a useful pattern.

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Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/andregusman-raiz/a-gusman-claude/ag-referencia-anti-ciclo-preditivo
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add andregusman-raiz/a-gusman-claude --skill ag-referencia-anti-ciclo-preditivo
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/andregusman-raiz/a-gusman-claude

Made for: Claude Code.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for ag-referencia-anti-ciclo-preditivo

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/andregusman-raiz/a-gusman-claude/ag-referencia-anti-ciclo-preditivo/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/andregusman-raiz/a-gusman-claude/ag-referencia-anti-ciclo-preditivo)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/andregusman-raiz/a-gusman-claude/ag-referencia-anti-ciclo-preditivo"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/andregusman-raiz/a-gusman-claude/ag-referencia-anti-ciclo-preditivo/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for ag-referencia-anti-ciclo-preditivo

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/andregusman-raiz/a-gusman-claude/ag-referencia-anti-ciclo-preditivo"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/andregusman-raiz/a-gusman-claude/ag-referencia-anti-ciclo-preditivo.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 42 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 9,530 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe. Third-party audits
  • NVIDIA SkillSpector warn 7 Sept 2026
SkillSpector: 1 finding, up to medium

These are SkillSpector’s own severities. On a checked sample its high-severity flags on skills were ~96% false positives — a documented command, a public API, a “never do X” rule — so we show them as a caution to read, not a verdict. Why →

  • medium analysis-evasion · line 1
    Suspicious Unicode normalization or mixed-script content
    Fix: Review the flagged content for security risks. Ensure no credentials, secrets, or sensitive data are exposed.
How audits are shown
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00042 $0.09530
Opus 5.5 $0.00017 $0.03812
Sonnet 5.5 $0.00008 $0.01906
Haiku 4.5 $0.00004 $0.00953

Measured 1mo ago against content hash 598d84079fa4, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-10-07, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

ag-referencia-anti-ciclo-preditivo scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 1mo ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

skills/ag-referencia-anti-ciclo-preditivo/SKILL.md · 741 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 741 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Anti-Ciclo Preditivo — Regras Universais

30 regras derivadas de diagnostico pos-mortem de um sistema preditivo que consumiu 6 meses e 13 iteracoes sem confirmar sinal preditivo. Custo de descobrir cada regra = ~2 semanas de ciclo real. Aplicaveis a qualquer projeto: churn, inadimplencia, fraud, forecasting, scoring, anomaly, recommendation.

Escopo: compoe com ~/Claude/CLAUDE.md (workspace) e CLAUDE.md local do projeto.

Quando carregar: inicio de qualquer projeto preditivo, antes de treinar modelo, antes de declarar "sinal detectado", antes de deploy de pipeline preditivo.



Vocabulario agnostico

Termo Significado
Sinal preditivo Lift estatisticamente significativo de um modelo/estrategia sobre baseline trivial
Ground-truth observavel Valor real do target, acessivel apenas apos o instante de decisao T-0
Baseline forte Modelo simples (regressao linear, heuristica de negocio, regra de ouro) + fonte de referencia externa confiavel
Walkforward / OOT Validacao temporal onde treino usa apenas dados =T
Kill-criterion Criterio pre-registrado de abandono do projeto (threshold + amostra minima + CI)
Null test Teste com labels embaralhadas / assignment aleatorio para calibrar noise floor
Noise floor Magnitude de efeito produzida sob hipotese nula (zero sinal) por artefato matematico
Metrica primaria Metrica que define sucesso do projeto (ROI, F1, recall@K, precision, AUC, Brier, log-loss, etc)
Metrica de calibracao Metrica que mede "quao bem-calibradas sao as probabilidades" (Brier, log-loss, ECE, reliability)
Ciclo N N-esima iteracao de "vou melhorar o sistema"; ciclos tipicos sao 2-4 semanas cada

Read the full file on GitHub · 741 lines

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 1mo ago First seen · 741 lines · 42 tokens per session scan A 598d84079fa4

Subscribe to this mod's changes

ag-referencia-anti-ciclo-preditivo is a skill published in the GitHub repository andregusman-raiz/a-gusman-claude (18 stars, last pushed 1mo ago), licensed MIT. It adds 42 tokens to every session and 9,530 once invoked, about $0.0002 per session on Opus 5.5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-09-03.

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