Getting it into your agent
One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.
npx skills add beel-collab/presets.dev --skill progressive-estimationgit clone --depth 1 https://github.com/beel-collab/presets.devWrote this? Show the measurements
A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.
[](https://agentmods.dev/skills/beel-collab/presets.dev/progressive-estimation)<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/beel-collab/presets.dev/progressive-estimation"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/beel-collab/presets.dev/progressive-estimation.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>What it costs to keep this loaded
Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.
| Model | Per session | Once invoked |
|---|---|---|
| Fable 5.1 | $0.00020 | $0.00724 |
| Opus 5 | $0.00010 | $0.00362 |
| Sonnet 5 | $0.00004 | $0.00145 |
| Haiku 4.5 | $0.00002 | $0.00072 |
Grade A, and why
progressive-estimation scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 4d ago.
A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.
Nothing flagged
None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.
This is a copy
89% identical to progressive-estimation — 22 lines differ, which has more behind it and is treated as the original. This page carries a canonical link to it rather than competing with it.
How it starts
The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 81 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.
Progressive Estimation
Estimate AI-assisted and hybrid human+agent development work using research-backed formulas with PERT statistics, confidence bands, and calibration feedback loops.
Overview
Progressive Estimation adapts to your team's working mode — human-only, hybrid, or agent-first — applying the right velocity model and multipliers for each. It produces statistical estimates rather than gut feelings.
When to Use This Skill
- Estimating development tasks where AI agents handle part of the work
- Sprint planning with hybrid human+agent teams
- Batch sizing a backlog (handles 5 or 500 issues)
- Staffing and capacity planning with agent multipliers
- Release date forecasting with confidence intervals
How It Works
- Mode Detection — Determines if the team works human-only, hybrid, or agent-first
- Task Classification — Categorizes by size (XS–XL), complexity, and risk
- Formula Application — Applies research-backed multipliers grounded in empirical studies
- PERT Calculation — Produces expected values using three-point estimation
- Confidence Bands — Generates P50, P75, P90 intervals
- Output Formatting — Formats for Linear, JIRA, ClickUp, GitHub Issues, Monday, or GitLab
- Calibration — Feeds back actuals to improve future estimates
Examples
Single task:
"Estimate building a REST API with authentication using Claude Code"
Batch mode:
"Estimate these 12 JIRA tickets for our next sprint"
With context:
"We have 3 developers using AI agents for ~60% of implementation. Estimate this feature."
Best Practices
- Start with a single task to calibrate before moving to batch mode
- Feed back actual completion times to improve the calibration system
- Use "instant mode" for quick T-shirt sizing without full PERT analysis
- Be explicit about team composition and agent usage percentage
Common Pitfalls
- Problem: Overconfident estimates Solution: Use P75 or P90 for commitments, not P50
What this file has done since we first saw it
Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.
- 4d ago First seen · 81 lines · 20 tokens per session scan A 41cb640463f2
progressive-estimation is a skill published in the GitHub repository beel-collab/presets.dev (2 stars, last pushed 4mo ago), licensed MIT. It adds 20 tokens to every session and 724 once invoked, about $0.0001 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. It is 89% identical to progressive-estimation, differing in 22 lines, and is treated as a copy.
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