commercial-forecaster

commercial-forecaster is a skill for Codex from bestagentkits/agency-skills. It costs 194 tokens per session (2,872 once invoked), scanned A, a copy of commercial-forecaster, MIT.

A forecasting method for estimating bookings, recurring revenue, customer retention, and the reliability of sales pipeline stages.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it for quarterly board forecasts, commit and best-case numbers, ARR projections, cohort retention analysis, and pipeline confidence checks.
Why use it?
It replaces a single unsupported forecast number with several outcomes and the assumptions behind them, while showing where customer groups or pipeline stages are weakening.

Skill for Codex

Written for Codex: agents/openai.yaml present. Also seen: mentions Codex; mentions Gemini CLI; mentions OpenCode.

Good fit Use it for quarterly board forecasts, commit and best-case numbers, ARR projections, cohort retention analysis, and pipeline confidence checks.

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Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/bestagentkits/agency-skills/commercial-forecaster
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add bestagentkits/agency-skills --skill commercial-forecaster
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/bestagentkits/agency-skills

Made for: Codex.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for commercial-forecaster

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/bestagentkits/agency-skills/commercial-forecaster/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/bestagentkits/agency-skills/commercial-forecaster)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/bestagentkits/agency-skills/commercial-forecaster"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/bestagentkits/agency-skills/commercial-forecaster/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for commercial-forecaster

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/bestagentkits/agency-skills/commercial-forecaster"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/bestagentkits/agency-skills/commercial-forecaster.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 194 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 2,872 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.
Origin 98% copy Near-identical to another mod in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00194 $0.02872
Opus 5 $0.00097 $0.01436
Sonnet 5 $0.00039 $0.00574
Haiku 4.5 $0.00019 $0.00287

Measured 9d ago against content hash ad604e6d0e26, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-12, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

commercial-forecaster scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 9d ago.

The scan reads SKILL.md. This mod also ships 3 executable files (scripts/bookings_forecaster.py, scripts/cohort_arr_projector.py, scripts/funnel_confidence_scorer.py), listed below but not scanned — reading those needs a real analyzer, not pattern matching.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

Origin

This is a copy

98% identical to commercial-forecaster — 7 lines differ, which has more behind it and is treated as the original. This page carries a canonical link to it rather than competing with it.

skills/claude-skills/commercial-forecaster/SKILL.md · 152 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 152 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

commercial-forecaster

Purpose

Help Commercial leaders answer three questions at the forecast moment:

  1. What's the commit / best-case / pipe-only number? (3-tier bookings forecast with disclosed assumptions)
  2. Which cohorts are leaking, and is the consolidated NRR hiding the leak? (per-cohort NRR/GRR projection over horizon)
  3. Which funnel stages are reliable, and which are statistical noise? (per-stage coefficient-of-variation confidence band)

The skill recommends three forecast numbers + an explicit assumption block. The CRO presents the number, the board sees the assumptions, the theatre dies.

When to use

  • Building the quarterly bookings forecast for the board
  • Preparing the QBR forecast where the CFO will ask "what's the commit, what's the best-case, what's the pipe-only"
  • Projecting ARR for next 4-8 quarters using cohort retention data
  • Suspecting a consolidated NRR number is hiding a leaky recent cohort
  • Pipeline-coverage is shrinking and you need to know which stages are still trustworthy
  • You're being asked for a "single number" and you need the structured answer that surfaces the assumption

Do not use for:

  • Backward-looking financial close + reporting → finance/financial-analysis
  • Strategic financial planning (multi-year, scenario, fundraise) → c-level-advisor/cfo-advisor
  • "Should we hire a VP Sales?" / territory design / comp plan → c-level-advisor/cro-advisor
  • Setting prices → sibling pricing-strategist (projects revenue at prices already set)
  • Per-deal discount approval → sibling deal-desk

Workflow

Step 1 — Intake pipeline + cohort + historical conversion data

Fill assets/forecast_intake_template.md (≈ 20 min). Captures: opportunity list with stage/amount/close-date/age/last-activity; historical stage-to-stage conversion across last 4Q and last 12Q; per-cohort ARR + per-quarter retention + expansion data; funnel stage names with 12-quarter conversion history.

Step 2 — Run 3-tier bookings forecast

Read the full file on GitHub · 152 lines

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 9d ago First seen · 152 lines · 194 tokens per session scan A ad604e6d0e26

Subscribe to this mod's changes

commercial-forecaster is a skill published in the GitHub repository bestagentkits/agency-skills (11 stars, last pushed 2mo ago), licensed MIT. It adds 194 tokens to every session and 2,872 once invoked, about $0.0010 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. It is 98% identical to commercial-forecaster, differing in 7 lines, and is treated as a copy.

Related

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