commercial-forecaster

commercial-forecaster is a skill for Claude Code, Codex from cass-2003/local-workflow-skill. It costs 194 tokens per session (2,802 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A commercial-forecasting guide for producing bookings, recurring-revenue, pipeline, and retention forecasts. It gives three forecast cases—commit, best case, and pipeline only—and states the assumptions behind them.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it for quarterly board forecasts, ARR projections, cohort retention analysis, pipeline-stage reliability checks, and commit or best-case planning.
Why use it?
It helps replace a single unsupported forecast number with a view of uncertainty and the evidence behind it. It can also reveal when overall retention hides problems in a recent customer group or sales stage.

Skill for Claude CodeCodex

Written for no agent in particular: nothing here depends on one.

Good fit Use it for quarterly board forecasts, ARR projections, cohort retention analysis, pipeline-stage reliability checks, and commit or best-case planning.

Compare 6 skills from other repositories ↓
Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/cass-2003/local-workflow-skill/commercial-forecaster
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add cass-2003/local-workflow-skill --skill commercial-forecaster
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/cass-2003/local-workflow-skill

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for commercial-forecaster

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/cass-2003/local-workflow-skill/commercial-forecaster/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/cass-2003/local-workflow-skill/commercial-forecaster)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/cass-2003/local-workflow-skill/commercial-forecaster"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/cass-2003/local-workflow-skill/commercial-forecaster/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for commercial-forecaster

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/cass-2003/local-workflow-skill/commercial-forecaster"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/cass-2003/local-workflow-skill/commercial-forecaster.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 194 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 2,802 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00194 $0.02802
Opus 5 $0.00097 $0.01401
Sonnet 5 $0.00039 $0.00560
Haiku 4.5 $0.00019 $0.00280

Measured 6d ago against content hash 2496eeaaa4db, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-10, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

commercial-forecaster scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 6d ago.

The scan reads SKILL.md. This mod also ships 3 executable files (scripts/bookings_forecaster.py, scripts/cohort_arr_projector.py, scripts/funnel_confidence_scorer.py), listed below but not scanned — reading those needs a real analyzer, not pattern matching.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

Origin

Copies of this mod

1 near-identical copy found in the catalogue:

skills/commercial-strategy/community/commercial-forecaster/SKILL.md · 149 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 149 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

commercial-forecaster

Purpose

Help Commercial leaders answer three questions at the forecast moment:

  1. What's the commit / best-case / pipe-only number? (3-tier bookings forecast with disclosed assumptions)
  2. Which cohorts are leaking, and is the consolidated NRR hiding the leak? (per-cohort NRR/GRR projection over horizon)
  3. Which funnel stages are reliable, and which are statistical noise? (per-stage coefficient-of-variation confidence band)

The skill recommends three forecast numbers + an explicit assumption block. The CRO presents the number, the board sees the assumptions, the theatre dies.

When to use

  • Building the quarterly bookings forecast for the board
  • Preparing the QBR forecast where the CFO will ask "what's the commit, what's the best-case, what's the pipe-only"
  • Projecting ARR for next 4-8 quarters using cohort retention data
  • Suspecting a consolidated NRR number is hiding a leaky recent cohort
  • Pipeline-coverage is shrinking and you need to know which stages are still trustworthy
  • You're being asked for a "single number" and you need the structured answer that surfaces the assumption

Do not use for:

  • Backward-looking financial close + reporting → finance/financial-analysis
  • Strategic financial planning (multi-year, scenario, fundraise) → c-level-advisor/cfo-advisor
  • "Should we hire a VP Sales?" / territory design / comp plan → c-level-advisor/cro-advisor
  • Setting prices → sibling pricing-strategist (projects revenue at prices already set)
  • Per-deal discount approval → sibling deal-desk

Workflow

Step 1 — Intake pipeline + cohort + historical conversion data

Fill assets/forecast_intake_template.md (≈ 20 min). Captures: opportunity list with stage/amount/close-date/age/last-activity; historical stage-to-stage conversion across last 4Q and last 12Q; per-cohort ARR + per-quarter retention + expansion data; funnel stage names with 12-quarter conversion history.

Step 2 — Run 3-tier bookings forecast

Read the full file on GitHub · 149 lines

Files

What ships with it

7 files beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 6d ago First seen · 149 lines · 194 tokens per session scan A 2496eeaaa4db

Subscribe to this mod's changes

commercial-forecaster is a skill published in the GitHub repository cass-2003/local-workflow-skill (12 stars, last pushed 2mo ago), licensed MIT. It adds 194 tokens to every session and 2,802 once invoked, about $0.0010 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-09-03.

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