Getting it into your agent
One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.
npx agentmods add skills/deciqai/knowledge-skills/availability-heuristicnpx skills add deciqAI/knowledge-skills --skill availability-heuristicgit clone --depth 1 https://github.com/deciqAI/knowledge-skillsWrote this? Show the measurements
A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.
[](https://agentmods.dev/skills/deciqai/knowledge-skills/availability-heuristic)<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/deciqai/knowledge-skills/availability-heuristic"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/deciqai/knowledge-skills/availability-heuristic.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>What it costs to keep this loaded
Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.
| Model | Per session | Once invoked |
|---|---|---|
| Fable 5 | $0.00111 | $0.01795 |
| Opus 5 | $0.00056 | $0.00898 |
| Sonnet 5 | $0.00022 | $0.00359 |
| Haiku 4.5 | $0.00011 | $0.00179 |
Grade A, and why
availability-heuristic scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 5d ago.
A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.
Nothing flagged
None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.
How it starts
The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 126 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.
Availability Heuristic
Overview
The availability heuristic: people estimate probability by how easily examples come to mind. Vivid, recent, and media-reported events are systematically overestimated; routine, statistical events are underestimated. Five triggers: recency, vividness, media coverage, personal experience, imaginability. Structural fix: reference-class forecasting — answer from base-rate data, not memory.
Composes with bayesian-reasoning, probabilistic-thinking, anchoring, survivorship-bias, framing-effect.
When to Use
- Someone estimates probability from memorable examples rather than data
- Risk perception driven by recent news, vivid anecdotes, or media coverage
- Team is preparing for the last disaster rather than the most likely next one
- Investment or resource-allocation decision follows a recent dramatic event
- Medical, legal, or technical decision made by anecdote rather than reference class
- AI capex, AI valuations, or AI-adoption/displacement estimates are driven by a viral demo, a dramatic layoff headline, or a safety scare rather than deployment and labor base rates
Not when: available evidence is a representative sample; decision warrants precautionary weight on rare catastrophic risks; no reference-class data exists.
Coaching Novices (Adaptive Front Door)
- Engine mode: user has a specific risk or frequency estimate → run The Process directly.
- Coach mode: user is new → guide step by step.
In Coach mode, respond one step at a time. Each [WAIT] is a hard stop — output only that step's question, then stop.
- One-line: before trusting an intuitive probability, ask whether it is based on retrieval ease or on a reference class with actual data.
- Check fit: if recent vivid evidence is also representative, use it; otherwise discount and seek base rates.
- Elicit their real case — what probability is being claimed, on what basis?
[WAIT — do not advance until user responds]
- Run The Process one step at a time: reference class → base rate → distortion diagnosis → compare to intuitive estimate.
[WAIT — do not advance until user responds]
- Close: restate corrected estimate as base-rate + specific adjustment, with the adjustment justified.
[WAIT — do not advance until user responds]
What ships with it
4 files beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.
What this file has done since we first saw it
Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.
- 5d ago First seen · 126 lines · 111 tokens per session scan A 19ada00c0d65
availability-heuristic is a skill published in the GitHub repository deciqAI/knowledge-skills (10 stars, last pushed 3d ago), licensed MIT. It adds 111 tokens to every session and 1,795 once invoked, about $0.0006 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-31.
Other skills, from other repositories
voice-builder
Ingests 5–20 of the user's writing samples and distils a reusable voice-profile.md — signature phrases, sentence-length distribution, opener/closer habits, punctuation quirks, vocabulary do/don't lists, tone sliders, and three calibration paragraphs with self-checks. Other skills load this file so every post sounds…
english-swe-daily
Daily English expression coach for intermediate software engineers. Use this skill whenever the user wants to improve their spoken or written English in a software engineering work context — especially for standups, Slack messages, 1:1s, meetings, giving feedback on code, asking for help, disagreeing politely, or…
agent-teacher
Teach a concept through a runnable code example plus a structured walkthrough, instead of a wall of definitions. Trigger whenever the user wants to understand a technical concept — phrases like "解释一下 X / X 是什么 / 教我 X / X 怎么工作 / 这个 X 是啥 / 我不太懂 X", or "explain X / what is X / teach me X / how does X work / help me…
lecture-notes
Transform raw lecture content (transcript, plain text, or slides) into clean, structured, study-ready notes in Markdown. Use this skill whenever the user pastes lecture material — a transcript (with or without timestamps), course/lecture text, or slide content — and asks for notes, a summary, or help studying. Also…
offensive-exploit-dev-course
Full exploit development course roadmap and syllabus: weekly topics, recommended reading, lab setup, and learning path from vulnerability classes through advanced exploitation. Use to structure exploit dev training or onboard new researchers.
master-debate
Use when user explicitly asks for an adversarial / multi-round dialectic between masters — 祖师辩论, 各执一词, 谁更对, debate, 应成 vs 顿悟, 顿渐之争. Differs from /compare-masters (parallel single-round) by being adversarial multi-round via fresh-subagent orchestration. Topics 空有 / 禅净 / 性相 / 戒律 vs 内观 — trigger is adversarial framing…