Getting it into your agent
One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.
npx skills add deciqAI/knowledge-skills --skill hindsight-biasgit clone --depth 1 https://github.com/deciqAI/knowledge-skillsWrote this? Show the measurements
A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.
[](https://agentmods.dev/skills/deciqai/knowledge-skills/hindsight-bias)<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/deciqai/knowledge-skills/hindsight-bias"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/deciqai/knowledge-skills/hindsight-bias/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/deciqai/knowledge-skills/hindsight-bias"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/deciqai/knowledge-skills/hindsight-bias.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>- NVIDIA SkillSpector pass
What it costs to keep this loaded
Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.
| Model | Per session | Once invoked |
|---|---|---|
| Fable 5.1 | $0.00123 | $0.02129 |
| Opus 5 | $0.00062 | $0.01064 |
| Sonnet 5 | $0.00025 | $0.00426 |
| Haiku 4.5 | $0.00012 | $0.00213 |
Grade A, and why
hindsight-bias scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 8d ago.
A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.
Nothing flagged
None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.
How it starts
The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 123 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.
Hindsight Bias
Overview
Hindsight bias — the "I knew it all along" effect — is the tendency, after learning an outcome, to misremember your prior judgment as having been closer to that outcome than it actually was. Fischhoff (1975) demonstrated three distinct components: memory distortion ("I said it would happen"), inevitability ("it had to happen"), and foreseeability ("anyone should have seen it"). Each requires a different countermeasure; the structural fix for all three is pre-commitment documentation.
Composes with probabilistic-thinking, premortem, confirmation-bias, and survivorship-bias.
When to Use
- A post-mortem is becoming an exercise in blame for an "obviously foreseeable" outcome
- Someone says "I knew this would happen" without contemporaneous records
- A decision is being evaluated against its outcome rather than the information available when made
- An investor, judge, or jury evaluates a past decision with knowledge of how it turned out
- Someone calls a market move "obvious in retrospect" — e.g. the AI boom, AI capex buildout, or frontier-AI valuations were "clearly inevitable" / "anyone should have seen the AI adoption wave coming"
Not when: pre-commitment documentation exists and matches current memory; the goal is pattern-recognition from outcomes; the failure to predict was a genuine process failure with clear pre-outcome signals.
Coaching Novices (Adaptive Front Door)
- Engine mode: user has a specific post-outcome narrative → run The Process directly.
- Coach mode: user is unfamiliar or has no concrete case → guide step by step.
In Coach mode, respond one step at a time. Each [WAIT] is a hard stop — output only that step's question, then stop.
- One-line: before judging a past decision by its outcome, ask what was actually knowable in advance — check the contemporaneous record, not your current memory.
- Check fit against When to Use / When NOT to use. If records exist and match memory, bias is bounded.
- Elicit the specific outcome and the claim of foreseeability. What outcome happened? Who is being credited/blamed?
[WAIT — do not advance until user responds]
- Run The Process one step at a time: reconstruct the pre-outcome information set, decompose the three components, evaluate decision process vs. outcome.
[WAIT — do not advance until user responds]
- Close by naming the insight uncovered and the structural fix (decision journal, pre-mortem, blind post-mortem).
[WAIT — do not advance until user responds]
What ships with it
4 files beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.
What this file has done since we first saw it
Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.
- 8d ago First seen · 123 lines · 123 tokens per session scan A 0b4c5e9eed10
hindsight-bias is a skill published in the GitHub repository deciqAI/knowledge-skills (10 stars, last pushed 10d ago), licensed MIT. It adds 123 tokens to every session and 2,129 once invoked, about $0.0006 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-09-03.
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