scenario-planning

scenario-planning is a skill for Claude Code, Codex from deciqAI/knowledge-skills. It costs 113 tokens per session (2,256 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A planning method that prepares for several plausible futures instead of relying on one forecast. It is useful when important drivers are uncertain and a wrong assumption could cause serious harm.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to stress-test long-term strategies, assess major investments, and prepare for changes in regulation, technology, geopolitics, or supply.
Why use it?
It helps teams make strategies that can withstand different outcomes, including events they cannot predict accurately.

Skill for Claude CodeCodex

Written for no agent in particular: nothing here depends on one.

Good fit Use it to stress-test long-term strategies, assess major investments, and prepare for changes in regulation, technology, geopolitics, or supply.

Compare 6 skills from other repositories ↓
Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/deciqai/knowledge-skills/scenario-planning
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add deciqAI/knowledge-skills --skill scenario-planning
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/deciqAI/knowledge-skills

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for scenario-planning

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/deciqai/knowledge-skills/scenario-planning/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/deciqai/knowledge-skills/scenario-planning)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/deciqai/knowledge-skills/scenario-planning"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/deciqai/knowledge-skills/scenario-planning/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for scenario-planning

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/deciqai/knowledge-skills/scenario-planning"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/deciqai/knowledge-skills/scenario-planning.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 113 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 2,256 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe. Third-party audits
  • NVIDIA SkillSpector pass 7 Sept 2026
How audits are shown
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00113 $0.02256
Opus 5 $0.00056 $0.01128
Sonnet 5 $0.00023 $0.00451
Haiku 4.5 $0.00011 $0.00226

Measured 9d ago against content hash 3a7ab33f8f0e, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-12, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

scenario-planning scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 9d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

scenario-planning/SKILL.md · 123 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 123 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Scenario Planning

Overview

Scenario planning accepts that certain futures are genuinely unknowable and prepares for several of them rather than betting on one forecast. Pierre Wack formalized this at Shell in the early 1970s; Shell's pre-built Scenario B let it survive the 1973 oil shock while competitors were unprepared. Schwartz: "The goal is not to predict the future but to make decisions that are robust across a variety of possible futures." (The Art of the Long View, 1991, p. 9.)

Composition: probabilistic-thinking before (base-rate grounding); second-order-thinking inside each scenario (chain reactions); inversion alongside (stress-test current strategy).

When to Use

Apply when: decision is large and hard to reverse; 3+ year horizon with a genuinely bi-directional driver; non-consensus outcome would be catastrophic; macro forces (geopolitics, regulation, technology) are pivotal; a bet hinges on whether AI capex / AI valuations sustain or correct, or on how AI adoption and chip-supply policy unfold; or you are weighing how deep an AI-vendor commitment or multi-year enterprise AI-adoption bet to make while pricing, compute supply, and vendor viability are unsettled.

When NOT to use: Tactical/short-reversibility decisions; single measurable driver (use sensitivity analysis); team lacks authority to change strategy; as a substitute for execution.

Coaching Novices (Adaptive Front Door)

  • Engine mode: user has a concrete decision → run The Process directly.
  • Coach mode: user is unfamiliar or has no concrete case → guide step by step.

In Coach mode, respond one step at a time. Each [WAIT] is a hard stop — output only that step's question, then stop.

  1. One-line what-it-is: scenario planning builds 3–4 different plausible futures and asks "can our strategy survive all of them?" instead of betting on the most likely one.
  2. Check fit against When to Use / When NOT to use. If decision is short-horizon and reversible, redirect to a simpler tool.
  3. Elicit their real decision. "I want to think about the future" is not a case. "Should we build a factory in Eastern Europe given supply-chain uncertainty?" is. Get specific.

[WAIT — do not advance until user responds]

  1. Walk The Process one step per exchange: focal question first, then drivers, then the two critical uncertainties — ask at each gate rather than generating on their behalf.

[WAIT — do not advance until user responds]

  1. Close by naming the one scenario the team had not taken seriously before, and the one pre-emptive action it suggests.

[WAIT — do not advance until user responds]

Read the full file on GitHub · 123 lines

Files

What ships with it

3 files beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 9d ago First seen · 123 lines · 113 tokens per session scan A 3a7ab33f8f0e

Subscribe to this mod's changes

scenario-planning is a skill published in the GitHub repository deciqAI/knowledge-skills (10 stars, last pushed 10d ago), licensed MIT. It adds 113 tokens to every session and 2,256 once invoked, about $0.0006 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-09-03.

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