Getting it into your agent
One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.
npx skills add EvoClaw/amplify --skill alternative-hypothesis-checkgit clone --depth 1 https://github.com/EvoClaw/amplifyWrote this? Show the measurements
A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.
[](https://agentmods.dev/skills/evoclaw/amplify/alternative-hypothesis-check)<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/evoclaw/amplify/alternative-hypothesis-check"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/evoclaw/amplify/alternative-hypothesis-check.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>What it costs to keep this loaded
Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.
| Model | Per session | Once invoked |
|---|---|---|
| Fable 5.1 | $0.00043 | $0.00480 |
| Opus 5 | $0.00022 | $0.00240 |
| Sonnet 5 | $0.00009 | $0.00096 |
| Haiku 4.5 | $0.00004 | $0.00048 |
Grade A, and why
alternative-hypothesis-check scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 8d ago.
A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.
Nothing flagged
None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.
What it actually says
Alternative Hypothesis Check
Discipline layer skill. Active during Phase 4–5 for Type D and Type H projects.
Iron Law
NO MECHANISM CLAIMS WITHOUT EXCLUDING ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATIONS
Systematic Check
For each major finding, systematically check:
- □ Confounders — variables that could explain the association independently of your proposed mechanism
- □ Batch effects [bioinformatics] — technical variation masquerading as biology (plate, lane, date, operator)
- □ Technical noise — measurement artifacts, instrument drift, reagent lot differences
- □ Sample selection bias — non-random inclusion criteria that correlate with the outcome
- □ Multiple testing inflation — testing many hypotheses means some will be significant by chance; confirm FDR/Bonferroni was applied
- □ Correlation ≠ causation — temporal precedence, dose-response, and intervention evidence must be present before causal language is used
When an Alternative Explanation Cannot Be Excluded
If an alternative explanation cannot be excluded:
→ It must be stated as a limitation in the paper → Language must be weakened ("associated with" not "causes") → It cannot be presented as a mechanistic finding
Checklist Format
For each finding, produce a table:
| Finding | Alternative checked | Excluded? | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| ... | Confounder X | Yes / No | ... |
Rationalization Firewall
| You will hear yourself say... | Reality check |
|---|---|
| "The effect is too strong to be confounding" | Strong effects can still be confounded. Check anyway. |
| "We controlled for the obvious variables" | Obvious to you. What about reviewer #2's favorite confounder? |
| "Correlation is enough for this paper" | Correlation is enough only if you DON'T claim mechanism. |
| "Batch correction was applied" | Did you verify it worked? Show before/after. |
What this file has done since we first saw it
Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.
- 8d ago First seen · 49 lines · 43 tokens per session scan A 45997f77268d
alternative-hypothesis-check is a skill published in the GitHub repository EvoClaw/amplify (12 stars, last pushed 6mo ago), licensed MIT. It adds 43 tokens to every session and 480 once invoked, about $0.0002 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.
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