scenario-planning

scenario-planning is a skill for Claude Code from fatihguner/foreman. It costs 78 tokens per session (2,936 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A planning method that explores several plausible futures instead of trying to predict one exact outcome. It uses a matrix of major uncertainties to test strategies and prepare responses.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to examine expansion plans, major spending decisions, risks, backup actions, and choices that should remain useful across different futures.
Why use it?
It helps organisations prepare for uncertainty and avoid relying on a single forecast when making important decisions.

Skill for Claude Code

Written for Claude Code: shipped in a Claude Code plugin.

Part of the foreman plugin — 142 skills, 60 commands, 7 agents shipped together

Good fit Use it to examine expansion plans, major spending decisions, risks, backup actions, and choices that should remain useful across different futures.

Compare 6 skills from other repositories ↓
Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/fatihguner/foreman/scenario-planning
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add fatihguner/foreman --skill scenario-planning
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/fatihguner/foreman

Made for: Claude Code.

Or install foreman, the plugin that ships this one along with the rest of its 142 skills, 60 commands, 7 agents.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for scenario-planning

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/fatihguner/foreman/scenario-planning/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/fatihguner/foreman/scenario-planning)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/fatihguner/foreman/scenario-planning"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/fatihguner/foreman/scenario-planning/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for scenario-planning

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/fatihguner/foreman/scenario-planning"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/fatihguner/foreman/scenario-planning.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 78 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 2,936 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe. Third-party audits
  • NVIDIA SkillSpector pass 7 Sept 2026
How audits are shown
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00078 $0.02936
Opus 5 $0.00039 $0.01468
Sonnet 5 $0.00016 $0.00587
Haiku 4.5 $0.00008 $0.00294

Measured 6d ago against content hash 3dfd5639c6ed, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-12, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

scenario-planning scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 6d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

plugins/foreman/skills/scenario-planning/SKILL.md · 205 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 205 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Read runtime and advisory rules before applying this skill. Other Foreman layers and the catalog are in ../../content/, relative to this SKILL.md.

Scenario Planning

When the Arab oil embargo struck in October 1973, most Western corporations were blindsided. Royal Dutch Shell was not. Through a practice called scenario planning -- pioneered within the company by Pierre Wack and his team in the Group Planning division -- Shell had already rehearsed a world in which oil prices spiked dramatically. While competitors scrambled to react, Shell had contingency plans ready to execute. Within two years, Shell rose from the seventh-largest oil company to the second. The story is not merely corporate lore; it remains the canonical demonstration that rehearsing multiple futures is more valuable than perfecting a single forecast.

Scenario planning does not attempt to predict the future. It attempts to prepare for several plausible futures simultaneously, so that when events unfold -- inevitably in ways that match no single prediction -- the organization can respond with speed and coherence rather than confusion.


The Framework

The Logic of Scenarios

Traditional strategic planning assumes a single most-likely future and builds one plan around it. Scenario planning rejects this premise. It constructs multiple internally consistent narratives about how the future might develop, then uses these narratives to stress-test strategy and develop flexible responses.

The distinction is not academic. A single-forecast plan is brittle; it works brilliantly if the forecast is correct and fails entirely if it is not. A scenario-informed strategy bends without breaking.

The Process

Scenario planning follows a disciplined sequence, though practitioners adapt the steps to their context:

Step 1 -- Define the Focal Question What specific strategic decision or uncertainty does the organization need to navigate? The question must be concrete. "What will our industry look like in ten years?" is too broad. "Should we invest $20M in a new manufacturing facility given regulatory and demand uncertainty?" is actionable.

Read the full file on GitHub · 205 lines

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 6d ago First seen · 205 lines · 78 tokens per session scan A 3dfd5639c6ed

Subscribe to this mod's changes

scenario-planning is a skill published in the GitHub repository fatihguner/foreman (50 stars, last pushed 7d ago), licensed MIT. It adds 78 tokens to every session and 2,936 once invoked, about $0.0004 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-09-06.