epic-hypothesis

epic-hypothesis is a skill for Claude Code, Codex from getcrew44/crew44. It costs 40 tokens per session (2,650 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A way to describe a large product initiative as an if/then assumption about a target user, an expected result, and how success will be checked.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to define who an initiative is for, what change it should create, which experiments can test it, and what evidence would support the idea.
Why use it?
It makes uncertain assumptions visible before a team commits to a full build. It also gives the team a clear basis for small experiments and measurable success criteria.

Skill for Claude CodeCodex

Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/getcrew44/crew44/epic-hypothesis
Any agent
npx skills add getcrew44/crew44 --skill epic-hypothesis
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/getcrew44/crew44

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for epic-hypothesis

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/getcrew44/crew44/epic-hypothesis.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/getcrew44/crew44/epic-hypothesis)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/getcrew44/crew44/epic-hypothesis"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/getcrew44/crew44/epic-hypothesis.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>
Per session 40 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 2,650 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. Scan, not verified.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5 $0.00040 $0.02650
Opus 5 $0.00020 $0.01325
Sonnet 5 $0.00008 $0.00530
Haiku 4.5 $0.00004 $0.00265

Measured 4d ago against content hash deef2a06a16f, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-08-30, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

epic-hypothesis scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 4d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

daemon/internal/presets/defaultcrew/skills/product/epic-hypothesis/SKILL.md · 278 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 278 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Purpose

Frame epics as testable hypotheses using an if/then structure that articulates the action or solution, the target beneficiary, the expected outcome, and how you'll validate success. Use this to manage uncertainty in product development by making assumptions explicit, defining lightweight experiments ("tiny acts of discovery"), and establishing measurable success criteria before committing to full build-out.

This is not a requirements spec—it's a hypothesis you're testing, not a feature you're committed to shipping.

Key Concepts

The Epic Hypothesis Framework

Inspired by Tim Herbig's Lean UX hypothesis format, the structure is:

If/Then Hypothesis:

  • If we [action or solution on behalf of target persona]
  • for [target persona]
  • Then we will [attain or achieve a desirable outcome or job-to-be-done]

Tiny Acts of Discovery Experiments:

  • We will test our assumption by:
    • [Experiment 1]
    • [Experiment 2]
    • [Add more as necessary]

Validation Measures:

  • We know our hypothesis is valid if within [timeframe]
  • we observe:
    • [Quantitative measurable outcome]
    • [Qualitative measurable outcome]
    • [Add more as necessary]

Why This Structure Works

  • Hypothesis-driven: Forces you to state what you believe (and could be wrong about)
  • Outcome-focused: "Then we will" emphasizes user benefit, not feature output
  • Experiment-first: Encourages lightweight validation before full build
  • Falsifiable: Clear success criteria make it possible to kill bad ideas early
  • Risk management: Treats epics as bets, not commitments

Anti-Patterns (What This Is NOT)

  • Not a feature spec: "Build a dashboard with 5 charts" is a feature, not a hypothesis
  • Not a guaranteed commitment: Hypotheses can (and should) be invalidated
  • Not output-focused: "Ship feature X by Q2" misses the point—did it achieve the outcome?
  • Not experiment-free: If you skip experiments and go straight to build, you're not testing a hypothesis

Read the full file on GitHub · 278 lines

Files

What ships with it

2 files beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 4d ago First seen · 278 lines · 40 tokens per session scan A deef2a06a16f

Subscribe to this mod's changes

epic-hypothesis is a skill published in the GitHub repository getcrew44/crew44 (359 stars, last pushed 2mo ago), licensed MIT. It adds 40 tokens to every session and 2,650 once invoked, about $0.0002 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.

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