empirical-falsification

empirical-falsification is a skill for Claude Code, Codex from jdpalumbo2/workbench. It costs 46 tokens per session (635 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

An evidence-checking workflow for claims, statistics, and assumptions. It states a claim precisely, searches for real supporting evidence, and reports whether the evidence confirms it.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it before citing a statistic, presenting a claim, or building a strategy on an assumption, especially when the result needs current, checkable sources.
Why use it?
It prevents plausible-sounding but unchecked statements from being repeated or used as the basis for decisions. It also makes uncertainty and mixed evidence visible.

Skill for Claude CodeCodex

Written for no agent in particular: nothing here depends on one.

Good fit Use it before citing a statistic, presenting a claim, or building a strategy on an assumption, especially when the result needs current, checkable sources.

Compare 6 skills from other repositories ↓
Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/jdpalumbo2/workbench/empirical-falsification
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add jdpalumbo2/workbench --skill empirical-falsification
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/jdpalumbo2/workbench

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for empirical-falsification

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/jdpalumbo2/workbench/empirical-falsification/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/jdpalumbo2/workbench/empirical-falsification)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/jdpalumbo2/workbench/empirical-falsification"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/jdpalumbo2/workbench/empirical-falsification/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for empirical-falsification

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/jdpalumbo2/workbench/empirical-falsification"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/jdpalumbo2/workbench/empirical-falsification.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 46 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 635 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00046 $0.00635
Opus 5 $0.00023 $0.00318
Sonnet 5 $0.00009 $0.00127
Haiku 4.5 $0.00005 $0.00064

Measured 9d ago against content hash 1a4fc3dab4e4, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-09, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

empirical-falsification scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 9d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

skills/empirical-falsification/SKILL.md · 40 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 40 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Empirical Falsification

Overview

Check a claim against actual evidence — pass or fail — instead of against how plausible it sounds. Not vibes, not logic, not "this matches what I already believe": evidence.

The most expensive thing in any strategy is a claim nobody checked.

When to Use

  • A statistic or claim is about to be repeated in a deck, meeting, or document.
  • You're building on an assumption that's never actually been verified.
  • A "fact everyone knows" starts to feel shaky when you try to source it.
  • Stakes are high and you don't want to be the one challenged on it in the room.

Core Pattern

  1. State the claim precisely. Vague claims can't be falsified — pin down the exact assertion, including any numbers or scope ("70% of X leave because of Y," not "people leave because of managers").
  2. Search for real evidence, not recalled evidence. This is the step that matters: do not answer from training-data memory of what sources probably say. Use WebSearch (and WebFetch to check a source in full) to find what current, citable sources actually say.
  3. Report pass or fail against what was found, with sources. If evidence is mixed or the claim is more nuanced than stated, say so — "partially true, with this caveat" is a valid, useful result, not a failure to reach a verdict.

Implementation

This skill requires the WebSearch tool. Do not produce citations from memory — an LLM will confidently generate plausible-sounding sources that don't check out, which is the exact failure mode this skill exists to prevent. If WebSearch is unavailable, say so explicitly rather than falling back to recalled citations.

When a citation leads to another citation instead of a primary source, follow the chain — a stat repeated everywhere with nothing at the bottom of the chain is itself the finding. Stop once you reach either a primary source (the actual dataset, study, or report) or two consecutive dead ends (a broken link, a page that doesn't contain the number it's cited for). Report which one you hit.

Read the full file on GitHub · 40 lines

Files

What ships with it

1 file beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 9d ago First seen · 40 lines · 46 tokens per session scan A 1a4fc3dab4e4

Subscribe to this mod's changes

empirical-falsification is a skill published in the GitHub repository jdpalumbo2/workbench (1 stars, last pushed 6d ago), licensed MIT. It adds 46 tokens to every session and 635 once invoked, about $0.0002 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-31.

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