actuarial-risk-modeling

actuarial-risk-modeling is a skill for Claude Code, Codex from magnus919/agent-skills. It costs 101 tokens per session (2,562 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A guide to statistical models for insurance and financial risk, where outcomes are uncertain and decisions can have serious consequences. It covers models for claims, losses, survival times, returns, volatility, and extreme risks.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it for insurance pricing, claims and reserving, solvency, risk classification, portfolio loss, backtesting, scenario analysis, and communicating model limits to decision-makers.
Why use it?
It helps choose models based on the type of data, exposure, dependence, extreme outcomes, and the consequences of being wrong. It also helps check calibration, compare forecasts, test assumptions, and explain uncertainty.

Skill for Claude CodeCodex

Written for no agent in particular: nothing here depends on one.

Good fit Use it for insurance pricing, claims and reserving, solvency, risk classification, portfolio loss, backtesting, scenario analysis, and communicating model limits to decision-makers.

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Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/magnus919/agent-skills/actuarial-risk-modeling
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add magnus919/agent-skills --skill actuarial-risk-modeling
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/magnus919/agent-skills

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Its marketplace also offers this one on its own, as the plugin actuarial-risk-modeling/plugin install actuarial-risk-modeling after adding the marketplace above.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for actuarial-risk-modeling

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/magnus919/agent-skills/actuarial-risk-modeling/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/magnus919/agent-skills/actuarial-risk-modeling)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/magnus919/agent-skills/actuarial-risk-modeling"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/magnus919/agent-skills/actuarial-risk-modeling/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for actuarial-risk-modeling

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/magnus919/agent-skills/actuarial-risk-modeling"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/magnus919/agent-skills/actuarial-risk-modeling.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 101 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 2,562 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe. Third-party audits
  • NVIDIA SkillSpector pass 7 Sept 2026
How audits are shown
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00101 $0.02562
Opus 5 $0.00051 $0.01281
Sonnet 5 $0.00020 $0.00512
Haiku 4.5 $0.00010 $0.00256

Measured 12d ago against content hash f1d4db75016b, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-11, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

actuarial-risk-modeling scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 12d ago.

The scan reads SKILL.md. This mod also ships 3 executable files (scripts/risk_preflight.py, scripts/temporal_split_audit.py, scripts/test_risk_scripts.py), listed below but not scanned — reading those needs a real analyzer, not pattern matching.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

actuarial-risk-modeling/SKILL.md · 141 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 141 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Actuarial and Financial Risk Modeling

Overview

Apply statistical modeling to uncertain outcomes where distributional assumptions, exposure, dependence, tail behavior, calibration, and decision consequences matter. The skill is methodology-first: it teaches model selection and evidence, not a particular library or rating formula.

When to Use

Load this skill when the task involves:

  • insurance pricing, claims, reserving, solvency, risk classification, or experience rating;
  • claim frequency, severity, pure premium, medical expenditure, loss, or event-time outcomes;
  • linear, generalized linear, two-part, count, survival, panel, longitudinal, or tail models;
  • financial returns, volatility, portfolio loss, risk measures, or scenario output;
  • calibration, forecast evaluation, backtesting, model comparison, or assumption diagnosis;
  • explaining model results, uncertainty, limitations, or use controls to decision-makers.

When Not to Use

  • Use the Decision Entry Points table above for adjacent work. In brief: data-scientist owns general statistical, causal, experimental, and machine-learning methodology; financial-modeling owns deterministic operating, SaaS, fundraising, and cash-flow models.
  • Use a named tool skill for operating a forecasting, database, or modeling platform.
  • Do not present output as licensed actuarial, investment, legal, accounting, or regulatory advice. Escalate consequential decisions to qualified practitioners and applicable standards.

Decision Entry Points

Starting situation First move Load next
Policy, claim, or loss data Define grain, exposure, target, and horizon references/problem-framing.md
Claims development triangle or reserve estimate Identify accident/development/calendar structure and valuation boundary references/applications-and-governance.md + references/validation-and-calibration.md
Financial returns, volatility, or ordered observations Define information cutoff and forecast horizon references/model-families.md + references/validation-and-calibration.md
Deterministic SaaS, cash-flow, or fundraising model Route out of this skill financial-modeling
Generic causal, experimental, or ML methodology Route out of this skill data-scientist

Read the full file on GitHub · 141 lines

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 12d ago First seen · 141 lines · 101 tokens per session scan A f1d4db75016b

Subscribe to this mod's changes

actuarial-risk-modeling is a skill published in the GitHub repository magnus919/agent-skills (76 stars, last pushed yesterday), licensed MIT. It adds 101 tokens to every session and 2,562 once invoked, about $0.0005 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.