economic-indicator-tracker

Economic Indicator Tracker

INDICATORS = {
    "leading": [
        {"name": "PMI Manufacturing", "frequency": "monthly", "impact": "HIGH", "pairs": ["USD", "EUR", "GBP"]},
        {"name": "Building Permits", "frequency": "monthly", "impact": "MEDIUM", "pairs": ["USD"]},
        {"name": "Consumer Confidence", "frequency": "monthly", "impact": "MEDIUM", "pairs": ["USD", "EUR"]},
        {"name": "Yield Curve 2-10", "frequency": "daily", "impact": "HIGH", "pairs": ["USD"]},
        {"name": "New Orders Index", "frequency": "monthly", "impact": "MEDIUM", "pairs": ["USD"]},
        {"name": "Stock Market (SPX)", "frequency": "daily", "impact": "HIGH", "pairs": ["ALL"]},
        {"name": "Initial Jobless Claims", "frequency": "weekly", "impact": "MEDIUM", "pairs": ["USD"]}],
    "coincident": [
        {"name": "Non-Farm Payrolls", "frequency": "monthly", "impact": "HIGH", "pairs": ["USD"]},
        {"name": "Industrial Production", "frequency": "monthly", "impact": "MEDIUM", "pairs": ["USD", "EUR"]},
        {"name": "Retail Sales", "frequency": "monthly", "impact": "HIGH", "pairs": ["USD", "GBP"]},
        {"name": "GDP", "frequency": "quarterly", "impact": "HIGH", "pairs": ["ALL"]}],
    "lagging": [
        {"name": "CPI / Inflation", "frequency": "monthly", "impact": "HIGH", "pairs": ["ALL"]},
        {"name": "Unemployment Rate", "frequency": "monthly", "impact": "HIGH", "pairs": ["USD"]},
        {"name": "Core PCE", "frequency": "monthly", "impact": "HIGH", "pairs": ["USD"]},
        {"name": "Average Hourly Earnings", "frequency": "monthly", "impact": "MEDIUM", "pairs": ["USD"]}],
}

class EconomicIndicatorTracker:
    @staticmethod
    def cycle_position(leading_trend: str, coincident_trend: str, lagging_trend: str) -> dict:
        if leading_trend == "improving" and coincident_trend == "improving":
            phase = "EXPANSION — risk-on currencies favored (AUD, NZD, CAD)"
        elif leading_trend == "deteriorating" and coincident_trend == "improving":
            phase = "LATE CYCLE — be cautious, peak may be near"
        elif leading_trend == "deteriorating" and coincident_trend == "deteriorating":
            phase = "CONTRACTION — safe havens favored (JPY, CHF, USD, Gold)"
        elif leading_trend == "improving" and coincident_trend == "deteriorating":
            phase = "EARLY RECOVERY — selective risk-on, high-beta currencies"
        else:
            phase = "TRANSITION — mixed signals"
        return {"phase": phase, "leading": leading_trend, "coincident": coincident_trend, "lagging": lagging_trend}

    @staticmethod
    def surprise_index(actual: float, forecast: float, previous: float) -> dict:
        surprise = actual - forecast
        beat = actual > forecast
        return {
            "surprise": round(surprise, 3),
            "beat_expectations": beat,
            "vs_previous": "improving" if actual > previous else "deteriorating",
            "market_impact": "Positive surprise — currency should strengthen" if beat else "Negative surprise — currency weakens",
        }