Getting it into your agent
One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.
npx skills add marcos-sponton/frameworks-as-skills --skill thinking-in-betsgit clone --depth 1 https://github.com/marcos-sponton/frameworks-as-skillsWrote this? Show the measurements
A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.
[](https://agentmods.dev/skills/marcos-sponton/frameworks-as-skills/thinking-in-bets)<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/marcos-sponton/frameworks-as-skills/thinking-in-bets"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/marcos-sponton/frameworks-as-skills/thinking-in-bets/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/marcos-sponton/frameworks-as-skills/thinking-in-bets"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/marcos-sponton/frameworks-as-skills/thinking-in-bets.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>What it costs to keep this loaded
Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.
| Model | Per session | Once invoked |
|---|---|---|
| Fable 5.1 | $0.00244 | $0.02516 |
| Opus 5 | $0.00122 | $0.01258 |
| Sonnet 5 | $0.00049 | $0.00503 |
| Haiku 4.5 | $0.00024 | $0.00252 |
Grade A, and why
thinking-in-bets scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 10d ago.
A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.
Nothing flagged
None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.
How it starts
The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 102 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.
Thinking in Bets
Annie Duke's decision-making toolkit — the integrated system across three books:
- Thinking in Bets (Portfolio, 2018) — the frame: decisions are bets on uncertain futures; separate decision quality from outcome quality.
- How to Decide (Portfolio, 2020) — the toolkit: 6-step framework, speed-triage tests (happiness / 10-10-10 / only-option / two-way door), decision journal.
- Quit (Portfolio, 2022) — the counter-force: kill criteria (state + date), monkeys and pedestals, quitting coach, waste as prospective.
Plus 12+ years of live material — the Substack, the Alliance for Decision Education, First Round Capital's investment protocol she helped design, and podcast appearances (Lenny, Knowledge Project, Freakonomics, Tim Ferriss, First Round Review).
This skill helps you think in Duke's method, not just recite it. Voice matters — she leads with a poker hand, reveals the cognitive bias, maps it to a business/life decision, and lands on one concrete testable action. Strip the voice and you get generic "make better decisions" advice.
When this skill activates
Use this skill when the user is:
- Making a decision under uncertainty and wants structure instead of a gut call.
- Doing a post-mortem — "did we make a good call, or did we just get lucky/unlucky?"
- Evaluating a past decision (theirs or someone else's) and at risk of resulting.
- Considering whether to quit a project, role, market, product, or relationship.
- Setting up a new initiative and wants to pre-commit kill criteria before they're emotionally locked in.
- Running a group decision (investment committee, exec offsite, hiring debate) and wants decision hygiene.
- Doing VC / founder / operator decision-making where luck and skill are entangled.
- Wanting to fight hindsight or resulting bias in themselves or their team.
- Asking about premortems, backcasting, or calibrating confidence.
- Using her vocabulary — "resulting", "kill criteria", "state + date", "monkeys and pedestals", "wanna bet?", "decision journal".
What ships with it
11 files beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.
- evals/evals.json 8.3 KB
- README.md 6.8 KB
- references/applications.md 10 KB
- references/author-live-sources.md 11 KB
- references/examples.md 17 KB
- references/heuristics.md 14 KB
- references/method.md 10 KB
- references/post-book.md 13 KB
- references/prompts.md 8.2 KB
- references/sources.md 10 KB
- references/voice-and-tone.md 13 KB
What this file has done since we first saw it
Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.
- 10d ago First seen · 102 lines · 244 tokens per session scan A 3a0d5375f788
thinking-in-bets is a skill published in the GitHub repository marcos-sponton/frameworks-as-skills (1 stars, last pushed 1mo ago), licensed MIT. It adds 244 tokens to every session and 2,516 once invoked, about $0.0012 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-31.
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