tcx-forecast

Forecasting Discipline

Use this procedure when a workflow asks for prediction, scenario probability, valuation implication, or decision support.

Forecast fields are an agentic judgment contract, not a trading model, feature store, autonomous signal, or execution trigger. Use them to make role judgment reviewable, horizon-bound, falsifiable, updateable, and suitable for postmortem.

Required output shape:

• forecast_required
• forecast_allowed
• forecast_block_reason when probability should not be produced
• forecast_target
• forecast_horizon
• probability or probability_range when allowed
• base_rate or missing-base-rate note
• evidence_ids
• contrary_evidence
• resolution_source
• review_date
• update_triggers
• invalidation_conditions

Quality floor:

• Bound each forecast to a resolvable target and horizon.
• Separate factual data, model output, assumption, and judgment.
• For a scoreable binary forecast, provide a point probability; an optional range may express uncertainty around it. Range-only records are exploratory diagnostics and do not count toward proper-score calibration.
• Treat forecast probability as role judgment that needs evidence, contrary evidence, review date, and invalidation conditions.
• If probability and probability_range both appear, keep the point value inside the range.
• If evidence is too weak to defend a scoreable point probability, use forecast_allowed: false rather than presenting a range-only record as a calibrated forecast. Use not-decision-ready, revise, or blocked with a clear block reason.
• When forecast scope is negated, provide qualitative scenarios only; do not create probability fields or forecast ledger records.

Write scoreable records under trading/forecasts/ only after accepted evidence supports the forecast.