Getting it into your agent
One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.
npx skills add nicepkg/ai-workflow --skill forecast-premortemgit clone --depth 1 https://github.com/nicepkg/ai-workflowWrote this? Show the measurements
A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.
[](https://agentmods.dev/skills/nicepkg/ai-workflow/forecast-premortem)<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/nicepkg/ai-workflow/forecast-premortem"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/nicepkg/ai-workflow/forecast-premortem/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/nicepkg/ai-workflow/forecast-premortem"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/nicepkg/ai-workflow/forecast-premortem.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>What it costs to keep this loaded
Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.
| Model | Per session | Once invoked |
|---|---|---|
| Fable 5.1 | $0.00076 | $0.03936 |
| Opus 5.5 | $0.00030 | $0.01574 |
| Sonnet 5.5 | $0.00015 | $0.00787 |
| Haiku 4.5 | $0.00008 | $0.00394 |
Grade A, and why
forecast-premortem scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 1mo ago.
A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.
Nothing flagged
None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.
Copies of this mod
1 near-identical copy found in the catalogue:
- forecast-premortem — 91% identical, 37 lines differ
How it starts
The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 463 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.
Forecast Pre-Mortem
Table of Contents
- What is a Forecast Pre-Mortem?
- When to Use This Skill
- Interactive Menu
- Quick Reference
- Resource Files
What is a Forecast Pre-Mortem?
A forecast pre-mortem is a stress-testing technique where you assume your prediction has already failed and work backward to construct the history of how it failed. This reveals blind spots, tail risks, and overconfidence.
Core Principle: Invert the problem. Don't ask "Will this succeed?" Ask "It has failed - why?"
Why It Matters:
- Defeats overconfidence by forcing you to imagine failure
- Identifies specific failure modes you hadn't considered
- Transforms vague doubt into concrete risk variables
- Widens confidence intervals appropriately
- Surfaces "unknown unknowns"
Origin: Gary Klein's "premortem" technique, adapted for probabilistic forecasting
When to Use This Skill
Use this skill when:
- High confidence (>80% or <20%) - Most likely to be overconfident
- Feeling certain - Certainty is a red flag in forecasting
- Prediction is important - Stakes are high, need robustness
- After inside view analysis - Used specific details, might have missed big picture
- Before finalizing forecast - Last check before committing
Do NOT use when:
- Confidence already low (~50%) - You're already uncertain
- Trivial low-stakes prediction - Not worth the time
- Pure base rate forecasting - Premortem is for inside view adjustments
Interactive Menu
What would you like to do?
Core Workflows
1. Run a Failure Premortem - Assume prediction failed, explain why 2. Run a Success Premortem - For pessimistic predictions (<20%) 3. Dragonfly Eye Perspective - View failure through multiple lenses 4. Identify Tail Risks - Find black swans and unknown unknowns 5. Adjust Confidence Intervals - Quantify the adjustment 6. Learn the Framework - Deep dive into methodology 7. Exit - Return to main forecasting workflow
What ships with it
3 files beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.
What this file has done since we first saw it
Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.
- 1mo ago First seen · 463 lines · 76 tokens per session scan A 3d534a696fe7
forecast-premortem is a skill published in the GitHub repository nicepkg/ai-workflow (288 stars, last pushed 9mo ago), licensed MIT. It adds 76 tokens to every session and 3,936 once invoked, about $0.0003 per session on Opus 5.5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-09-03.
Other skills, from other repositories
hive.colony-progress-tracker
Claim tasks, record step progress, and verify SOP gates in the colony SQLite queue. Applies when your spawn message includes a dbpath field.
linear-tickets
Create or update high-quality Linear tickets while preserving the originating report, diagnostic links, attachments, and reporter/requester attribution. Read this whenever someone asks to create, recreate, or update a Linear issue.
status-report
Use when the user asks for a weekly / monthly status report, project update, individual or team progress summary. Produces a tight, scannable update with what shipped, what's in flight, what's blocked, and metrics.
notion
Notion API for creating and managing pages, databases, and blocks via curl. Search, create, update, and query Notion workspaces directly from the terminal.
gh-issue
Create, view, list, or comment on GitHub issues. Use when asked to file, open, or manage GitHub issues.
linear
Manage Linear issues, projects, and teams via the GraphQL API. Create, update, search, and organize issues. Uses API key auth (no OAuth needed). All operations via curl — no dependencies.