forecast-premortem

Forecast Pre-Mortem

Table of Contents

• What is a Forecast Pre-Mortem?
• When to Use This Skill
• Interactive Menu
• Quick Reference
• Resource Files

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What is a Forecast Pre-Mortem?

A forecast pre-mortem is a stress-testing technique where you assume your prediction has already failed and work backward to construct the history of how it failed. This reveals blind spots, tail risks, and overconfidence.

Core Principle: Invert the problem. Don't ask "Will this succeed?" Ask "It has failed - why?"

Why It Matters:

• Defeats overconfidence by forcing you to imagine failure
• Identifies specific failure modes you hadn't considered
• Transforms vague doubt into concrete risk variables
• Widens confidence intervals appropriately
• Surfaces "unknown unknowns"

Origin: Gary Klein's "premortem" technique, adapted for probabilistic forecasting

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When to Use This Skill

Use this skill when:

• High confidence (>80% or <20%) - Most likely to be overconfident
• Feeling certain - Certainty is a red flag in forecasting
• Prediction is important - Stakes are high, need robustness
• After inside view analysis - Used specific details, might have missed big picture
• Before finalizing forecast - Last check before committing

Do NOT use when:

• Confidence already low (~50%) - You're already uncertain
• Trivial low-stakes prediction - Not worth the time
• Pure base rate forecasting - Premortem is for inside view adjustments

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Interactive Menu

What would you like to do?

Core Workflows

1. Run a Failure Premortem - Assume prediction failed, explain why 2. Run a Success Premortem - For pessimistic predictions (<20%) 3. Dragonfly Eye Perspective - View failure through multiple lenses 4. Identify Tail Risks - Find black swans and unknown unknowns 5. Adjust Confidence Intervals - Quantify the adjustment 6. Learn the Framework - Deep dive into methodology 7. Exit - Return to main forecasting workflow