Getting it into your agent
One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.
npx skills add The-Utopia-Studio/skills --skill forecast-premortemgit clone --depth 1 https://github.com/The-Utopia-Studio/skillsWrote this? Show the measurements
A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.
[](https://agentmods.dev/skills/the-utopia-studio/skills/forecast-premortem)<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/the-utopia-studio/skills/forecast-premortem"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/the-utopia-studio/skills/forecast-premortem/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/the-utopia-studio/skills/forecast-premortem"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/the-utopia-studio/skills/forecast-premortem.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>What it costs to keep this loaded
Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.
| Model | Per session | Once invoked |
|---|---|---|
| Fable 5.1 | $0.00093 | $0.03647 |
| Opus 5 | $0.00046 | $0.01824 |
| Sonnet 5 | $0.00019 | $0.00729 |
| Haiku 4.5 | $0.00009 | $0.00365 |
Grade A, and why
forecast-premortem scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 5d ago.
A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.
Nothing flagged
None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.
This is a copy
91% identical to forecast-premortem — 37 lines differ, which has more behind it and is treated as the original. This page carries a canonical link to it rather than competing with it.
How it starts
The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 430 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.
Forecast Pre-Mortem
Table of Contents
Core Principle: Invert the problem. Instead of "Will this succeed?", ask "It has failed -- why?"
Interactive Menu
What would you like to do?
Core Workflows
1. Run a Failure Premortem - Assume prediction failed, explain why 2. Run a Success Premortem - For pessimistic predictions (<20%) 3. Dragonfly Eye Perspective - View failure through multiple lenses 4. Identify Tail Risks - Find black swans and unknown unknowns 5. Adjust Confidence Intervals - Quantify the adjustment 6. Learn the Framework - Deep dive into methodology 7. Exit - Return to main forecasting workflow
1. Run a Failure Premortem
Let's stress-test your prediction by imagining it has failed.
Failure Premortem Progress:
- [ ] Step 1: State the prediction and current confidence
- [ ] Step 2: Time travel to failure
- [ ] Step 3: Write the history of failure
- [ ] Step 4: Identify concrete failure modes
- [ ] Step 5: Assess plausibility and adjust
Step 1: State the prediction and current confidence
Tell me:
- What are you predicting?
- What's your current probability?
- What's your confidence interval?
Example: "This startup will reach $10M ARR within 2 years" - Probability: 75%, CI: 60-85%
Step 2: Time travel to failure
The Crystal Ball Exercise:
Jump forward to the resolution date. It is now [resolution date]. The event did NOT happen. This is a certainty. Do not argue with it.
How does it feel? Surprising? Expected? Shocking? This emotional response tells you about your true confidence.
Step 3: Write the history of failure
Backcasting Narrative: Starting from the failure point, work backward in time. Write the story of how we got here.
What ships with it
3 files beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.
What this file has done since we first saw it
Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.
- 5d ago First seen · 430 lines · 93 tokens per session scan A de2b86cdcc15
forecast-premortem is a skill published in the GitHub repository The-Utopia-Studio/skills (4 stars, last pushed 6d ago), licensed Apache-2.0. It adds 93 tokens to every session and 3,647 once invoked, about $0.0005 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. It is 91% identical to forecast-premortem, differing in 37 lines, and is treated as a copy.
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